Daniel Kahneman's mental models

Their wordsthere is the way in which people form impressions very quickly to form an impression and then you spend most of your time confirming it instead of collecting evidence and so if accidentally your impression was in the wrong direction we are going to confirm it and you don't give yourself a chance to correct it

Their wordswe have no way of calibrating ourselves so that makes us wildly overconfident about what we know and reluctant to accept that we may be wrong

Their wordsit's beautiful because when people are coming close to a decision it becomes difficult to raise doubts or to raise questions people who are flowing the group down when the group's is nearing a decision a perceivers really you know person I mean you know this you want to get rid of them and the pre-mortem legitimizes that sort of descent and that sort of doubts not only legitimizes that too much rewards it

Their wordsI would advise people make a lot of decisions to keep track their decisions and of how they turned out so that later you can come and and evaluate your procedures and and see whether there is anything that is in common with those decision that turned out well and then not so well

Their wordsone basic rule is slow down especially if you if you have the immediate conviction slow down

Their wordsthere is a more subtle error and harder harder to fix but that the best prediction the best guess is always less extreme than your impression intuitive prediction is as we say not progressive it doesn't recognize regression to the mean

Their wordsAs I understood clearly only when I taught statistics some years later, the idea that predictions should be less extreme than the information on which they are based is deeply counterintuitive.