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Bill Ackman's mental models

4 claims Bill Ackman made fit 3 mental models. Most often: Margin of safety, Incentives, Moats. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Incentives

Look at what people are rewarded for; it explains more behaviour than what they say, your own included.

Incentives drive all human behaviour, which makes a management team's incentives central to valuing a company.

  1. Bill Ackman Founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management So as I like to say, incentives drive all human behavior and that certainly applies in the business world. So understanding the people and what drives them, and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business, are very important part of the analysis for investing in a company. Bill Ackman: Investing, Financial Battles, Harvard, DEI, X & Free Speech | Lex Fridman Podcast #413youtube.com · 20 Feb 2024 · 0:32:42 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    So as I like to say, incentives drive all human behavior and that certainly applies in the business world. So understanding the people and what drives them, and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business, are very important part of the analysis for investing in a company.

Moats

What protects a business is whatever a rival cannot copy, and that is rarely the software.

Judging how wide a company's moat is is the hardest thing an investor does, and this is the most disruptable period in history.

  1. Bill Ackman Founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management The most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that, is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat, how much at risk is the business to disruption? And we're in, I would say, the greatest period of disruptability in history. Bill Ackman: Investing, Financial Battles, Harvard, DEI, X & Free Speech | Lex Fridman Podcast #413youtube.com · 20 Feb 2024 · 0:19:04 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    The most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that, is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat, how much at risk is the business to disruption? And we're in, I would say, the greatest period of disruptability in history.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Margin of safety

Leave room for being wrong, because sometimes you will be.

A margin of safety means paying a discount deep enough that being wrong about what a company is worth still leaves you whole.

  1. Bill Ackman Founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management You want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less, you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay. A big part of investing is not losing money. Bill Ackman: Investing, Financial Battles, Harvard, DEI, X & Free Speech | Lex Fridman Podcast #413youtube.com · 20 Feb 2024 · 0:07:12 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    You want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less, you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay. A big part of investing is not losing money.

An investor who never borrows against their securities can afford to think, because no fall in price can force them to sell.

  1. Bill Ackman Founder and chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management So as long as you don't borrow against securities, you own really high quality businesses and it's not money that you need in the short term, then you can actually be thoughtful about it. Bill Ackman: Investing, Financial Battles, Harvard, DEI, X & Free Speech | Lex Fridman Podcast #413youtube.com · 20 Feb 2024 · 0:41:46 into the videoAll korrents from this video
    So as long as you don't borrow against securities, you own really high quality businesses and it's not money that you need in the short term, then you can actually be thoughtful about it.