22 korrents from this recording
Every claim below is a statement made in this recording, quoted word for word and linked to the second it was said, so you can hear it rather than take our word for it. The wording comes from the transcript published alongside the recording; the sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording.
0:02:27 · watch on youtube.com↗
Our reading
The value of anything is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life.
Their wordsThe value of anything, I would say, other than love, let's say, is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life.
0:04:22 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsAnd very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about. And as a result, many investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future.
0:07:12 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsYou want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less, you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay. A big part of investing is not losing money.
0:18:02 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsPrice matters a lot. You can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay, you're not going to earn particularly attractive returns.
0:19:04 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsThe most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that, is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat, how much at risk is the business to disruption? And we're in, I would say, the greatest period of disruptability in history.
0:31:00 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsAnd that's why we have tended to stay away from companies that are technology companies because technology companies generally... The world is such a dynamic place that someone's always working on a better version.
0:32:42 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsSo as I like to say, incentives drive all human behavior and that certainly applies in the business world. So understanding the people and what drives them, and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business, are very important part of the analysis for investing in a company.
0:36:17 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsPeople tend to get excited about investments when stocks are going up and they get depressed when they're going down. And I think that's just inherently human. You have to reverse that. You have to get excited when things get cheaper and you got to get concerned when things get more expensive.
0:41:46 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsSo as long as you don't borrow against securities, you own really high quality businesses and it's not money that you need in the short term, then you can actually be thoughtful about it.
0:42:53 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsThere are very few that earn their keep in terms of the fees they charge. They tend to be too diversified and too short-term. And you're often much better off just buying an index fund.
0:44:05 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsI even recommend for individual investors to invest in a dozen companies, you don't get that much more benefit of diversification going from a dozen to 25 or even 50.
0:44:05 · watch on youtube.com↗
Our reading
Individual investors analysed Tesla better than the professional investors and analysts did.
Their wordsActually individual investors did a much better job analyzing Tesla than the so-called professional investors or analysts, the vast majority of them.
0:51:27 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsAnd what activism has done, and I think we've helped lead this movement, is it restored the balance of power between the owners of the business and the management of the company. And that's been a very good thing for the performance of the US stock market actually.
0:54:19 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsThat large owner on the board can help buy the time necessary for management to behave in a longer term way. And that's, I think, good for all the shareholders.
1:22:08 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsAnd oftentimes it's more important to them to have the public perception that they're good directors so they get the next best deal. If they have a reputation for taking on management too aggressively, word will get out in the small community of founders and they'll miss the next Google.
1:39:22 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsSo we at Pershing Square short a very few stocks. And the reason for that is short selling is just inherently treacherous.
2:18:22 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsIt's really a self-perpetuating board that effectively elects its own members. Once the balance tips, politically, one way or another, it can be kept that way forever. There's no kind of rebalancing system.
2:22:45 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsA friend of mine sent me Christopher Rufo's book, America's Cultural Revolution, which is sort of a sociological study of the origins of the DEI movement and critical race theory. I found it actually one of the more important books I've read and also I found it quite concerning. Ultimately, DEI comes out of a kind of Marxist socialist way to look at the world.
2:30:18 · watch on youtube.com↗
Our reading
Universities would be better run by business leaders than by academics the faculty approves of.
Their wordsI would argue having a business leader run these institutions and then having a board that has, itself, diverse viewpoints, and by the way, permanently structured to have diverse viewpoints is a much better way to run a university than picking an academic that the faculty supports.
2:39:10 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsWhen a company fails, most people blame the CEO. I generally blame the board. Because the board's job is to make sure the right person's running the company, and if they're failing, help the person.
3:04:38 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsThe problem is the defamation law in the US is so favorable to the publisher, to the media, and so unfavorable to the victim. And the incentives are all wrong.
3:10:49 · watch on youtube.com↗
Their wordsSo having an independently owned powerful platform is very important for truth, for free speech, for hearing the other side of the story, for counterbalancing the power of the government.