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← People and their mental models

Brad DeLong's mental models

9 claims Brad DeLong made fit 6 mental models. Most often: Second-order thinking, Bottlenecks, Collective action problems. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Collective action problems

What everyone would gain from, nobody provides alone, so shared goods need someone or something to hold people together.

Used by 18 others

Freedom of navigation is a global public good that decays once its guarantor is seen as unwilling to bear its cost.

Mental modelEverything decays without maintenance

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Freedom of navigation is a global public good, and public goods decay the instant their provider is revealed to be unwilling to pay for them. CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com · 18 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsFreedom of navigation is a global public good, and public goods decay the instant their provider is revealed to be unwilling to pay for them.

    ↗CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com

    18 Sept 2026

Everything decays without maintenance

Institutions, code, cities and knowledge run down by default; keeping something alive is work that has to be paid for.

Used by 27 others

Freedom of navigation is a global public good that decays once its guarantor is seen as unwilling to bear its cost.

Mental modelCollective action problems

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Freedom of navigation is a global public good, and public goods decay the instant their provider is revealed to be unwilling to pay for them. CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com · 18 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsFreedom of navigation is a global public good, and public goods decay the instant their provider is revealed to be unwilling to pay for them.

    ↗CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com

    18 Sept 2026

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Used by 86 others

A maritime chokepoint crisis permanently redirects long-term pipeline and terminal investment, not just short-term oil prices.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Chokepoint risk does more than spike the spot price for a season. It re-prices geography permanently: it redirects the next decade of pipeline and terminal investment and hands a windfall to whoever sits on the alternative route. CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com · 18 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsChokepoint risk does more than spike the spot price for a season. It re-prices geography permanently: it redirects the next decade of pipeline and terminal investment and hands a windfall to whoever sits on the alternative route.

    ↗CROSSPOST: SPENCER ACKERMAN: Fanute The Houthi Coupbraddelong.substack.com

    18 Sept 2026

After the An Lushan rebellion, China's elite spent a thousand years ensuring no general could rebel again, which may have cost China the ability to lead the Industrial Revolution.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Having survived, its governing élite and state apparatus spent the next thousand years arranging its institutions so that no imperial general could ever successfully such a thing again. That arrangement kept the emperors and their courts relatively safe. It may also have cost Chinese civilization the ability to lead the Industrial Revolution. Did a Fat, Laughing Barbarian General Divert the Industrial Revolution Away from China a Thousand Years After His Death?braddelong.substack.com · 27 Sept 2026
    Their wordsHaving survived, its governing élite and state apparatus spent the next thousand years arranging its institutions so that no imperial general could ever successfully such a thing again. That arrangement kept the emperors and their courts relatively safe. It may also have cost Chinese civilization the ability to lead the Industrial Revolution.

    ↗Did a Fat, Laughing Barbarian General Divert the Industrial Revolution Away from China a Thousand Years After His Death?braddelong.substack.com

    27 Sept 2026

Barry Ritholtz's reading-list curation is quietly self-defeating, since the better it gets, the more it adds to the information flood it aims to tame.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Barry Ritholtz’s guide to building a reading list is generous, disciplined, and quietly self-defeating — because the better his curation, the more it adds to the very flood it’s meant to tame. READING: BARRY RITHOLTZ: How I Build My Reading Listsbraddelong.substack.com · 22 Sept 2026
    Their wordsBarry Ritholtz’s guide to building a reading list is generous, disciplined, and quietly self-defeating — because the better his curation, the more it adds to the very flood it’s meant to tame.

    ↗READING: BARRY RITHOLTZ: How I Build My Reading Listsbraddelong.substack.com

    22 Sept 2026

Each new Trump outrage buys a day of base enthusiasm, then adds to a strong-disapproval pile that never shrinks.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Each new outrage buys a day of base enthusiasm, and then compounds the strong-disapproval pile that never shrinks. Yes. We Loathe Trump. We Really Loathe Trump. For Very Good Reasons. And We Are Many: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com · 25 Sept 2026
    Their wordsEach new outrage buys a day of base enthusiasm, and then compounds the strong-disapproval pile that never shrinks.

    ↗Yes. We Loathe Trump. We Really Loathe Trump. For Very Good Reasons. And We Are Many: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com

    25 Sept 2026

If AI hardware depreciates faster than assumed, the economics of the debt-financed AI capex boom invert and today's leverage turns reckless.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California If the useful life of an NVIDIA H100-vintage cluster turns out to really be three years rather than six, the capex cycle's economics invert, and the leverage that looked prudent looks reckless. DataCenter Risk Is the Real Thing: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com · 16 Sept 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIf the useful life of an NVIDIA H100-vintage cluster turns out to really be three years rather than six, the capex cycle's economics invert, and the leverage that looked prudent looks reckless.

    ↗DataCenter Risk Is the Real Thing: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com

    16 Sept 2026

Bottlenecks

A system moves only as fast as its narrowest point; speed up anything else and nothing changes.

Used by 88 others

For U.S. solar, policy and plumbing now matter more than the price of a panel.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California in the U.S., policy and plumbing now matter more than the price of a panel Rooftop Solar Rules Elsewhere!: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com · 1 Oct 2026
    Their wordsin the U.S., policy and plumbing now matter more than the price of a panel

    ↗Rooftop Solar Rules Elsewhere!: CHART OF THE DAYbraddelong.substack.com

    1 Oct 2026

The map is not the territory

Every model, word or plan is a simplified map of reality; useful when its structure matches, misleading when mistaken for the thing itself.

Used by 55 others

The important live questions about AI concern which metaphors, as abstraction layers that discard information, are useful right now.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California That means that the important and live questions are about what metaphors—what abstraction layers, throwing away information so that the problems become things we can grasp and think about—are useful right now? CROSSPOST: HENRY FARRELL: Machine God Metaphors Eat Your Brainbraddelong.substack.com · 22 Sept 2026
    Their wordsThat means that the important and live questions are about what metaphors—what abstraction layers, throwing away information so that the problems become things we can grasp and think about—are useful right now?

    ↗CROSSPOST: HENRY FARRELL: Machine God Metaphors Eat Your Brainbraddelong.substack.com

    22 Sept 2026

Trade-offs

Every choice gives something up, so name the cost; and check, because some trade-offs everyone assumes are not real.

Used by 60 others

Curation is an inevitable bet on judgment over completeness: accepting that almost everything will be missed, and investing attention in a few trusted curators.

  1. Brad DeLong Economics professor at the University of California Curation is thus an inevitable bet on judgment over completeness — you accept that you will miss almost everything, and you invest your scarce attention in a few people whose sense of the common thread you trust. READING: BARRY RITHOLTZ: How I Build My Reading Listsbraddelong.substack.com · 22 Sept 2026
    Their wordsCuration is thus an inevitable bet on judgment over completeness — you accept that you will miss almost everything, and you invest your scarce attention in a few people whose sense of the common thread you trust.

    ↗READING: BARRY RITHOLTZ: How I Build My Reading Listsbraddelong.substack.com

    22 Sept 2026