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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.
Their wordsIn a contest between a coherent weak actor and an incoherent strong one, bet on coherence.
Our reading
Mental modelsEverything decays without maintenance, Collective action problems
Their wordsFreedom of navigation is a global public good, and public goods decay the instant their provider is revealed to be unwilling to pay for them.
Our reading
Mental modelSecond-order thinking
Their wordsChokepoint risk does more than spike the spot price for a season. It re-prices geography permanently: it redirects the next decade of pipeline and terminal investment and hands a windfall to whoever sits on the alternative route.
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