Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography

Sarah Paine · 1h 02m · youtube.com ↗

26 korrents from this recording

Sarah Paine did not write this page.

Every claim below is a statement made in this recording, quoted word for word and linked to the second it was said, so you can hear it rather than take our word for it. The wording comes from the transcript published alongside the recording; the sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording.

0:01:30 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Maritime powers are the exception and continental powers the rule, and the whole difference is whether a country can defend itself at sea.

Their wordsIt turns out maritime powers are the exception and continental powers are the rule. Why? Cuz maritime powers, if need be, can defend themselves primarily at sea with their navies. Whereas, a continental power simply cannot.

Interesting
5 min later
0:06:49 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Russia has never had a commerce-driven economy, and Xi Jinping has been privileging China's crony sector over its private sector.

Their wordsAnd Russia's never had a commerce-driven economy. China much more so under Deng Xiaoping, but recently Xi Jinping has been privileging the crony sector over the private sector and neither one has stable government institutions.

Interesting
0:07:12 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
China and Russia have maritime ambitions without understanding what a maritime paradigm actually requires, and neither one has the prerequisites.

Their wordsSo, China and Russia certainly have maritime ambitions, but I'm not clear they actually understand what goes into a full maritime paradigm.

Interesting
8 min later
0:14:52 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Genocide is what happens to the losers of continental warfare, and in our own day the Uyghurs are slated for it.

Their wordsAnd uh genocide is what happens to the losers in continental warfare. And apparently in our own day, the Uyghurs are slated for genocide.

Interesting
1 min later
0:16:14 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
China's claims to its historical lands rest on the two dynasties in which the Han were themselves a subjugated people.

Their wordsAnd what's fascinating is today when China claims whatever its historical lands are, they either choose the Mongol Yuan Dynasty or the Manchu Qing Dynasty when the Han were subjugated people.

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4 min later
0:20:40 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for.

Their wordsPurpose number one of an army in this world is you protect the ruling machine. So, if you think about the People's Liberation Army, it's uh goal number one, uh mission number one is to keep the Communist Party in power.

Interesting
2 min later
0:22:25 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Land powers lose people by the million and maritime powers by the hundred thousand, and the reason is simply that the fighting happens at home.

Their wordsSo, the deaths for the the land powers are measured in uh millions, whereas the maritime powers, it's a hundreds of thousands, still not a great number.

Interesting
1 min later
0:23:08 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
A continental power fights on its invader's timetable; for a maritime power, whether and when to intervene at all is a matter of strategy.

Their wordsWhereas if you're a maritime power observing someone else being invaded cuz in theory it's pretty tough to invade you by sea, it's a major point of strategy as to whether you're going to intervene at all and if you are, what is the timing?

Interesting
1 min later
0:24:22 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The continental playbook is to take your neighbours one at a time — destabilise the rising, ingest the failing, wait to pounce — and that is Putin's game.

Their wordsYou set them up to fail, you destabilize the rising, you ingest the failing, and you set up buffer zones in between, and you await the opportune moment to pounce and absorb. This is Vladimir Putin's game.

Interesting
1 min later
0:24:58 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Russia and China are ringed by the most dysfunctional places on the planet because their own security paradigm manufactures failing states.

Their wordsOne, you're surrounding yourself by failing states. You can look at Russia and China and they're surrounded by some of the most dysfunctional places on the planet and you go, "Gee whiz, are they unlucky or they complicit?"

Interesting
0:25:25 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
There is no counsel in the continental world on when to stop taking territory, which is why Chinese and Russian empires keep overextending and imploding.

Their wordsAnd it turns out that there's been a tendency over the course of China's and Russia's long histories to overextend and this helps account for the implosions of various empires and dynasties.

Interesting
9 min later
0:33:58 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Britain alone in Europe needed no large standing army, because a competent navy meant no army could ever reach its shores.

Their wordsThey're the only uh power in Europe that doesn't need to maintain a large standing army because if Britain could maintain a competent navy, no army's going to reach British shores cuz they're going to be drowned at sea.

Interesting
3 min later
0:36:41 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The first rule of fighting a continental power is to keep your own economy growing, because that is the money that funds the military and the allies.

Their wordsSo, rule number one is you keep the home economy growing. That is number one, because that's going to produce the money that's going to fund your military, fund your allies, allow you to do everything.

Interesting
1 min later
0:37:53 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
A maritime power must never take on a continental power's main force directly, and Britain broke that rule at great cost in the First World War.

Their wordsRule number five, a rule that Britain broke at great cost in World War I. Do not take on the enemy main force directly. You certainly do not do that as an opening move.

Interesting
5 min later
0:43:13 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Once wealth became a function of commerce rather than land, who is rich and powerful became mostly a question of how industrialised a country is.

Their wordsWell, once wealth is a function of of commerce, industry, and trade, it isn't land anymore. And this upends the world. If you think about the world today, who's rich, who's poor, who's powerful, who's not, it's often the degree to which the country is industrialized.

Interesting
4 min later
0:47:35 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The most consequential international organisation of the last century is the one nobody has heard of: it standardised the shipping container.

Their wordsAnd then for those of you who are skeptical about international organizations, here's one you've never heard of. The International Organization for Standardization then standardized these container sizes to fit one if by truck, two if by railway cars, and thousands if by sea. And this just plummets transport costs.

Interesting
1 min later
0:49:03 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The Belt and Road cannot beat the sea, because the land route is not only dearer but requires controlling the most unstable places on earth end to end.

Their wordsAlso, not only is it far cheaper to send things by sea, it is far more secure. If you're going to run the Belt Road thing, uh or it's it's the belt part of it, the land part, um you've got to control the whole thing end to end. You're going through some of the most unstable places there are.

Interesting
0:49:30 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The seas are open to China only in peacetime, and that is a fact of its geography rather than anything anyone is doing to it.

Their wordsAnd also, for China, with its geographical setup as it is, uh the seas are going to be open to it only in peacetime. In wartime, this has nothing to do with anyone doing anything to them. It's just facts.

Interesting
1 min later
0:50:23 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Putin's objection to the post-Cold-War trade boom is not that it failed but that the wealth was not being made at his house.

Their wordsIt was a miracle of your lifetimes. It lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. The problem for the likes of Putin is that this wealth producing trade was not happening at his house, but the houses of those vested in the trading order, not in extortion.

Interesting
4 min later
0:54:04 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Whatever a state thinks it will gain by sending soldiers is inferior to what it would have got from sending diplomats and lawyers.

Their wordsAnd their idea is we must hash out our different differences with diplomats and lawyers cuz when you send the soldiers in, it is uh whatever gains you think you're going going to get are going to be inferior to what you would have done with the diplomats.

Interesting
1 min later
0:55:19 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The maritime order goes unappreciated because its objectives are negative: you can never prove you prevented anything.

Their wordsBut the maritime world is about negative objectives. It's preventing things from bad things from happening. And um you can never prove that you prevented anything.

Interesting
1 min later
0:56:46 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Sovereignty is the bedrock principle of international law: if states may invade one another, there is no international law left to speak of.

Their wordsThink about it. The bedrock principle of international law is sovereignty. If we're all going to be invading each other, what international law is there?

Interesting
1 min later
0:57:29 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Sanctions are economic chemotherapy: shaving a point or two of growth a year is what compounds into the difference between two countries.

Their wordsSanctions are like economic chemotherapy. What you're doing is presenting preventing one or two percent growth per annum even with leaky sanctions, right?

Interesting
1 min later
0:58:05 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
The maritime world does not try to eliminate a rogue state; it aims only to contain the problem at an acceptable cost.

Their wordsThis world is not about the operational win of totally eliminating a problem. It's rather it's containing it at acceptable cost.

Interesting
2 min later
1:00:16 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
Almost no country is maritime by geography, but an alliance can bestow a collective maritime position on everyone who joins it.

Their wordsAlliances can bestow a collective maritime position and power package to those countries that join in.

Interesting
1 min later
1:00:57 · watch on youtube.com↗

Our reading
No country has benefited more from the maritime order than China, which rejoined the family of nations under Deng Xiaoping.

Their wordsAnd if you think about China, it has benefited more than any other country from rejoining the family of nations in this maritime world under Deng Xiaoping.

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