Read the piece on braddelong.substack.com ↗
Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.
Their wordsThe usual default math assumes debtors want to pay. But founder-controlled firms with a "you lent us too much" attitude introduce a strategic-default option that standard systems of ratings do not fully capture.
Their wordsAnd when market opinion is nervous, it might turn and collapse the boom at any moment.
Our reading
Mental modelsSecond-order thinking, Leverage
Their wordsIf the useful life of an NVIDIA H100-vintage cluster turns out to really be three years rather than six, the capex cycle's economics invert, and the leverage that looked prudent looks reckless.
Keep reading
The other pieces are the ones whose claims are worded most like this one's. That measures language, not agreement: they may argue the opposite.