Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI…
17 connected korrents · 15 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 16 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs
Everything filed under AI agents
AI agents
Everything filed under coding agents
coding agents
Everything filed under recursive self-improvement
recursive self-improvement
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under mathematics
mathematics Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters. Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters. Last stated yesterday
16 Sept 2026
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-09-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. — tap to centre the map on it Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Trying to anticipate what AI will look like two model releases from now is a waste of time and a route to AI psychosis. — tap to centre the map on it Trying to anticipate what AI will look like two model releases from now is a waste of time and a route to AI psychosis. Last stated 3 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most of the useful mathematics AI produces over the next five years will be filling in connections that only somebody expert in several fields could draw. — tap to centre the map on it Most of the useful mathematics AI produces over the next five years will be filling in connections that only somebody expert in several fields could draw. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future is a variety of AIs each person works with, not one big super intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it The future is a variety of AIs each person works with, not one big super intelligence. Last stated 3 years ago
28 Sept 2023
MZ
Mark Zuckerberg — holds since 2023-09-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. Last stated 6 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 3 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A coding agent does not learn from its mistakes the way a person does -- it repeats the same error indefinitely unless a human notices and writes it down. — tap to centre the map on it A coding agent does not learn from its mistakes the way a person does -- it repeats the same error indefinitely unless a human notices and writes it down. Last stated 6 months ago
25 Mar 2026
MZ
Mario Zechner — holds since 2026-03-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A coding-agent company should not train its own model: it has to stay neutral ground for models to compete on. — tap to centre the map on it A coding-agent company should not train its own model: it has to stay neutral ground for models to compete on. Last stated 2 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company on a monolith cannot use AI on it: no model in the next eighteen months will hold that codebase, so the monolith has to be broken up or rewritten. — tap to centre the map on it A company on a monolith cannot use AI on it: no model in the next eighteen months will hold that codebase, so the monolith has to be broken up or rewritten. Last stated 6 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor. — tap to centre the map on it A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor. Last stated a month ago
10 Aug 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A future where agents run and improve an organisation is impossible unless humans can first see and understand the system themselves. — tap to centre the map on it A future where agents run and improve an organisation is impossible unless humans can first see and understand the system themselves. Last stated 6 months ago
22 Mar 2026
NF
Nicole Forsgren — holds since 2026-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. — tap to centre the map on it A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong. Last stated 6 months ago
22 Mar 2026
NF
Nicole Forsgren — holds since 2026-03-22 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters.
Holds SA Scott AlexanderRead this korrent →
Forecasters underestimate AI spending even more than they underestimate AI capability, and the spending is what drives the next leap.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holds SA Scott Aaronson
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Trying to anticipate what AI will look like two model releases from now is a waste of time and a route to AI psychosis.
Holds
Human-level AI will arrive in 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence, not in the decades-to-centuries range previously assumed.
Holds
Most of the useful mathematics AI produces over the next five years will be filling in connections that only somebody expert in several fields could draw.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
The future is a variety of AIs each person works with, not one big super intelligence.
Holds MZ Mark Zuckerberg
A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about.
Holds SY Steve Yegge
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A coding agent does not learn from its mistakes the way a person does -- it repeats the same error indefinitely unless a human notices and writes it down.
Holds
A coding-agent company should not train its own model: it has to stay neutral ground for models to compete on.
Holds
A company on a monolith cannot use AI on it: no model in the next eighteen months will hold that codebase, so the monolith has to be broken up or rewritten.
Holds SY Steve Yegge
A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor.
Holds
A future where agents run and improve an organisation is impossible unless humans can first see and understand the system themselves.
Holds NF Nicole Forsgren
A handful of AI agents is not a handful of colleagues, because agents agree with you constantly and colleagues tell you where you are wrong.
Holds NF Nicole Forsgren