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← Undervaluing secondary-star seasons leads analysts to over-credit first options and overestimate their worth.

15 connected korrents · 14 moments from 18 Aug 2011 to 27 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Everything filed under AGI AGI Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Undervaluing secondary-star seasons leads analysts to over-credit first options and overestimate their worth. Undervaluing secondary-star seasons leadsanalysts to over-credit first options andoverestimate their worth. Last stated 9 years ago 13 Apr 2018 BT Ben Taylor — holds since 2018-04-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Top-end value for superstars may not be materially greater in the playoffs than in the regular season. — tap to centre the map on it Top-end value for superstars may notbe materially greater in theplayoffs than in the regular season. Last stated 8 years ago 10 May 2018 BT Ben Taylor — holds since 2018-05-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI misalignment is overhyped if one is thinking primarily about near term dangers. — tap to centre the map on it AI misalignment is overhyped if oneis thinking primarily about nearterm dangers. Last stated 4 days ago 27 Oct 2026 ZM Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-10-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: Superstars almost always require secondary stars to win. — tap to centre the map on it Superstars almost always requiresecondary stars to win. Last stated 5 years ago 14 Mar 2022 BT Ben Taylor — holds since 2022-03-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: With any new subject people tend first to overrate it, then by reaction to undervalue it — tap to centre the map on it With any new subject people tendfirst to overrate it, then byreaction to undervalue it AL Ada Lovelace — holds since c. 1843 — tap for who they are Same subject: A giving approach that ranks options only by estimated expected value, with no preference for better-grounded estimates, is flawed. — tap to centre the map on it A giving approach that ranks optionsonly by estimated expected value,with no preference forbetter-grounded estimates, isflawed. Last stated 15 years ago 18 Aug 2011 HK Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2011-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: People intuitively undervalue longevity in basketball greatness rankings. — tap to centre the map on it People intuitively undervaluelongevity in basketball greatnessrankings. Last stated 9 years ago 13 Apr 2018 BT Ben Taylor — holds since 2018-04-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm tonudge customers into behavior thatisn't good for them is doingsomething bad. Last stated a year ago 7 Oct 2025 MM Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reportsunder one per cent risk should beread as several per cent, becausethe evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago 7 May 2024 BS Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces abehavior pulls it toward whateverimproves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. — tap to centre the map on it A belief system combining cosmicstakes, privileged knowledge,personal vocation and an imperativeto act can license extraordinarybehavior when it conflicts withordinary constraints. Last stated a month ago 17 Sept 2026 VR Venkatesh Rao — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-downmeasures list order rather thanreasons: randomise the options andevery one of them gets pickedequally. Last stated 9 months ago 25 Jan 2026 JC Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by itsoutcome, because good decisions failthrough no fault of the decider andbad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lacka huge amount of knowledge and relyon continual learning instead, socontinual learning is whatsuperintelligence should mean. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitutefor a well-specified conventionalalgorithm, so it cannot simply bedropped into a complex problem andtrusted. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Undervaluing secondary-star seasons leads analysts to over-credit first options and overestimate their worth. Last stated 13 Apr 2018 · 9 years ago Holds Ben Taylor Read this korrent →