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← The typical AI researcher thinks there is roughly a 10% chance that AI will kill everyone.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments on record from 6 Jun 2023 to 15 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AI and jobs
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neural networks Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The typical AI researcher thinks there is roughly a 10% chance that AI will kill everyone. The typical AI researcher thinks there is roughly a 10% chance that AI will kill everyone. Last stated 2 days ago
15 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar doom from AI, while the mean is around 15-20%. — tap to centre the map on it Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar doom from AI, while the mean is around 15-20%. Last stated 6 days ago
11 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is a good chance that AI will kill everyone soon. — tap to centre the map on it There is a good chance that AI will kill everyone soon. Last stated 6 days ago
11 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%. — tap to centre the map on it The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%. Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI. — tap to centre the map on it Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI. Last stated 6 days ago
11 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI will likely kill some people on the way to killing all of humanity. — tap to centre the map on it AI will likely kill some people on the way to killing all of humanity. Last stated 4 days ago
13 Sept 2026
NR
Naval Ravikant — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The danger from powerful AI is not that it kills everyone but techno-fascism: a few thousand people ruling whoever is left and the economy around them. — tap to centre the map on it The danger from powerful AI is not that it kills everyone but techno-fascism: a few thousand people ruling whoever is left and the economy around them. Last stated 2 years ago
3 Feb 2025
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2025-02-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The idea that AI will decide to kill humanity is a category error: it is math and code, built and controlled by people, not a living thing shaped by evolution. — tap to centre the map on it The idea that AI will decide to kill humanity is a category error: it is math and code, built and controlled by people, not a living thing shaped by evolution. Last stated 3 years ago
6 Jun 2023
MA
Marc Andreessen — holds since 2023-06-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. — tap to centre the map on it A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about. Last stated 6 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. — tap to centre the map on it A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good. Last stated 3 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. — tap to centre the map on it A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. Last stated 10 months ago
17 Nov 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An agent can understand a maximally simplified explanation and still be unable to come up with it — that gap is what is left of the expert's job. — tap to centre the map on it An agent can understand a maximally simplified explanation and still be unable to come up with it — that gap is what is left of the expert's job. Last stated 6 months ago
20 Mar 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anything nature shaped can be learned efficiently by a classical neural network, because evolutionary processes leave structure behind. — tap to centre the map on it Anything nature shaped can be learned efficiently by a classical neural network, because evolutionary processes leave structure behind. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The typical AI researcher thinks there is roughly a 10% chance that AI will kill everyone.
Holds Read this korrent →
Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar doom from AI, while the mean is around 15-20%.
Holds
There is a good chance that AI will kill everyone soon.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI.
Holds
AI will likely kill some people on the way to killing all of humanity.
Holds
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
The danger from powerful AI is not that it kills everyone but techno-fascism: a few thousand people ruling whoever is left and the economy around them.
Holds DP Dylan Patel
The idea that AI will decide to kill humanity is a category error: it is math and code, built and controlled by people, not a living thing shaped by evolution.
Holds
A company must cut half its engineers to pay for the other half's tokens, and that is what the layoffs are actually about.
Holds SY Steve Yegge
A productivity improvement means fewer people doing the same job, and that should be said plainly by the people defending it as good.
Holds
A universal basic income is a dangerous power-sharing arrangement, because it puts everyone's basic needs at the mercy of whoever holds office.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well.
Holds
An agent can understand a maximally simplified explanation and still be unable to come up with it — that gap is what is left of the expert's job.
Holds
Anything nature shaped can be learned efficiently by a classical neural network, because evolutionary processes leave structure behind.
Holds DH Demis Hassabis