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← Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5%…
17 connected korrents · 10 moments on record from 29 Aug 2023 to 11 Sept 2026.
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recursive self-improvement Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar doom from AI, while the mean is around 15-20%. Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar doom from AI, while the mean is around 15-20%. Last stated today
11 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI. — tap to centre the map on it Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI. Last stated today
11 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%. — tap to centre the map on it The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%. Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. — tap to centre the map on it AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. — tap to centre the map on it Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Aug 2023
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The risk of humanity destroying itself WITHOUT AI is the number nobody weighs, and AI is at least as likely to be what saves us. — tap to centre the map on it The risk of humanity destroying itself WITHOUT AI is the number nobody weighs, and AI is at least as likely to be what saves us. Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Misaligned AI behaviour will keep getting rarer and, at the same time, keep getting more extreme. — tap to centre the map on it Misaligned AI behaviour will keep getting rarer and, at the same time, keep getting more extreme. Last stated a month ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: On any given problem an AI tool succeeds maybe one or two percent of the time; the headline results are what running it at scale and picking the winners looks like. — tap to centre the map on it On any given problem an AI tool succeeds maybe one or two percent of the time; the headline results are what running it at scale and picking the winners looks like. Last stated 6 months ago
20 Mar 2026
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2026-03-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. — tap to centre the map on it A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. — tap to centre the map on it A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality. — tap to centre the map on it Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
DB
Dean W. Ball — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar doom from AI, while the mean is around 15-20%.
Holds Read this korrent →
Among AI people, roughly 10% is the typical estimate given for the risk of human extinction from AI.
Holds
The probability that AI destroys human civilization is about 10%.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
Once AI can do AI research, a single year should deliver four or five years worth of AI progress.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
AI research will be fully automated around 2030 or 2031, and AI will beat humans at essentially any job by about 2033.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
Underestimating near-term AI progress is itself a danger, which is why researchers should register their forecasts in public.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
The risk of humanity destroying itself WITHOUT AI is the number nobody weighs, and AI is at least as likely to be what saves us.
Holds LF Lex Fridman
Misaligned AI behaviour will keep getting rarer and, at the same time, keep getting more extreme.
Holds RG Ryan Greenblatt
On any given problem an AI tool succeeds maybe one or two percent of the time; the headline results are what running it at scale and picking the winners looks like.
Holds TT Terence Tao
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality.
Holds