korrents

On the map

Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.

← The outcome of elections is often determined by a small number of key districts.

12 connected korrents · 13 moments from 19 Dec 2023 to 3 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under America America Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under benchmarks benchmarks Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The outcome of elections is often determined by a small number of key districts. The outcome of elections is oftendetermined by a small number of keydistricts. Last stated today 3 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: The most likely districts to determine the House outcome can be identified in advance. — tap to centre the map on it The most likely districts todetermine the House outcome can beidentified in advance. Last stated today 3 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Elections are often decided by narrow margins. — tap to centre the map on it Elections are often decided bynarrow margins. Last stated today 3 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: Democrats are projected to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by approximately 8.7 points in the current political environment. — tap to centre the map on it Democrats are projected to win thepopular vote for the U.S. House byapproximately 8.7 points in thecurrent political environment. Last stated 2 weeks ago 20 Sept 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should bereported under a stated budget, oras a curve against test-time compute— never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago 26 Jun 2026 NB Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated 4 weeks ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A carmaker's claim to be the safest is mostly an artefact of comparing a new car against a fleet average twelve years old. — tap to centre the map on it A carmaker's claim to be the safestis mostly an artefact of comparing anew car against a fleet averagetwelve years old. Last stated 3 years ago 19 Dec 2023 PK Philip Koopman — holds since 2023-12-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. — tap to centre the map on it A backlash against women's economicrise is not automatic; it happensonly where politicians choose tomobilise it. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Dec 2024 AE Alice Evans — holds since 2024-12-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A candidate's political success is increasingly disconnected from their actual record of accomplishment. — tap to centre the map on it A candidate's political success isincreasingly disconnected from theiractual record of accomplishment. Last stated a month ago 31 Aug 2026 DD Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-08-31 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. — tap to centre the map on it A country without cultural unitystruggles to provide public goods,because its politics turns into anethnic spoils system. Last stated 6 months ago 9 Apr 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policyin the American West has dangerouslyoverloaded forests with fuel andmade megafires more likely. Last stated a month ago 22 Aug 2026 JP Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moonbefore America returns would be adefeat for the free world. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Aug 2026 CH Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are EB Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. — tap to centre the map on it A city's first rail line comes in ata reasonable cost and every lineafter it does not, because thefollow-up outgrows the in-house teamthat oversaw the pilot. Last stated 2 years ago 7 Dec 2024 AL Alon Levy — holds since 2024-12-07 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2015 to today — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are

At the centre The outcome of elections is often determined by a small number of key districts. Last stated 3 Oct 2026 · today Holds Brad DeLong Read this korrent →