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← Democrats are projected to win the popular vote for the U.S.…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 7 Dec 2024 to 27 Sept 2026. Nearly all of them are about benchmarks .
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scaling laws
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LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Democrats are projected to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by approximately 8.7 points in the current political environment. Democrats are projected to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by approximately 8.7 points in the current political environment. Last stated 2 weeks ago
20 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. — tap to centre the map on it A company's staff-engineer bar should be set against the best companies in the industry rather than against its own history, which is what makes title inflation a real cost. Last stated 6 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A speed difference between languages that share the LLVM backend measures the benchmark author, not the languages. — tap to centre the map on it A speed difference between languages that share the LLVM backend measures the benchmark author, not the languages. Last stated 2 years ago
22 Mar 2025
TH
ThePrimeagen — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI learning to generate good conjectures will never show up as a benchmark being knocked down; it will show up as a shift in how mathematicians talk about the tools. — tap to centre the map on it AI learning to generate good conjectures will never show up as a benchmark being knocked down; it will show up as a shift in how mathematicians talk about the tools. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI misalignment from reward hacking is sequestered to graded tasks and does not affect core ethics in normal use. — tap to centre the map on it AI misalignment from reward hacking is sequestered to graded tasks and does not affect core ethics in normal use. Last stated a week ago
23 Sept 2026
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Benchmarks and forecasts for AI capabilities are significantly over-optimistic compared to real-world AI research performance. — tap to centre the map on it Benchmarks and forecasts for AI capabilities are significantly over-optimistic compared to real-world AI research performance. Last stated 6 days ago
27 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Benchmarks and forecasts for AI capabilities may be substantially over-optimistic compared to real-world research performance. — tap to centre the map on it Benchmarks and forecasts for AI capabilities may be substantially over-optimistic compared to real-world research performance. Last stated 6 days ago
27 Sept 2026
RN
Ramez Naam — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. Last stated a month ago
22 Aug 2026
JP
Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated 2 months ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. — tap to centre the map on it A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. Last stated 2 years ago
7 Dec 2024
AL
Alon Levy — holds since 2024-12-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A diesel export ban would signal unreliability of the United States as a fossil fuel supplier. — tap to centre the map on it A diesel export ban would signal unreliability of the United States as a fossil fuel supplier. Last stated a week ago
24 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. — tap to centre the map on it A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. Last stated 4 weeks ago
5 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A superpower's deferential posture toward rival great powers can alienate its allies while yielding no strategic payoff in return. — tap to centre the map on it A superpower's deferential posture toward rival great powers can alienate its allies while yielding no strategic payoff in return. Last stated a month ago
2 Sept 2026
DD
Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-09-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. Last stated 4 weeks ago
7 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Erratic U.S. tariff implementation is teaching allies and enemies that the U.S. is no longer a reliable trading partner. — tap to centre the map on it Erratic U.S. tariff implementation is teaching allies and enemies that the U.S. is no longer a reliable trading partner. Last stated 8 months ago
9 Feb 2026
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2026-02-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy — tap to centre the map on it Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy Last stated a year ago
7 Apr 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-04-07 — tap for who they are