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← The most likely districts to determine the House outcome can be identified in advance.

15 connected korrents · 15 moments from 20 Jan 2025 to 3 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under war war Everything filed under tariffs tariffs Everything filed under China China Everything filed under benchmarks benchmarks Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The most likely districts to determine the House outcome can be identified in advance. The most likely districts to determine theHouse outcome can be identified inadvance. Last stated today 3 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Elections are often decided by narrow margins. — tap to centre the map on it Elections are often decided bynarrow margins. Last stated today 3 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: The outcome of elections is often determined by a small number of key districts. — tap to centre the map on it The outcome of elections is oftendetermined by a small number of keydistricts. Last stated today 3 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Democrats are projected to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by approximately 8.7 points in the current political environment. — tap to centre the map on it Democrats are projected to win thepopular vote for the U.S. House byapproximately 8.7 points in thecurrent political environment. Last stated 2 weeks ago 20 Sept 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: National congressional polling tends to stay stable between Labor Day and Election Day in midterm election years. — tap to centre the map on it National congressional polling tendsto stay stable between Labor Day andElection Day in midterm electionyears. Last stated 4 weeks ago 3 Sept 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Race raters may be underestimating the likelihood of a "blue wave" in midterm elections. — tap to centre the map on it Race raters may be underestimatingthe likelihood of a "blue wave" inmidterm elections. Last stated 2 weeks ago 22 Sept 2026 DD Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A minority party can peel off enough opposition-party votes to pass impeachment articles despite being outnumbered. — tap to centre the map on it A minority party can peel off enoughopposition-party votes to passimpeachment articles despite beingoutnumbered. Last stated 4 months ago 22 May 2026 JB Josh Barro — holds since 2026-05-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first missionis to keep the regime in power, notto defend the border — which is whatthe People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 4 months ago 9 Jun 2026 SP Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its ownindustrial strategy and call thesame policy cheating when China doesit. Last stated a year ago 15 May 2025 HR Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country's large manufacturing surplus can be a reflection of weak domestic consumption and misallocated resources. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large manufacturingsurplus can be a reflection of weakdomestic consumption andmisallocated resources. Last stated a week ago 24 Sept 2026 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. — tap to centre the map on it 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency,and it is a formula available toUkraine's allies precisely becausethey are not the ones doing thefighting. Last stated 12 months ago 10 Oct 2025 LF Lawrence Freedman — holds since 2025-10-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. — tap to centre the map on it 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actionsfundamentally shaped the world welive in today. Last stated 3 weeks ago 11 Sept 2026 MY Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. — tap to centre the map on it A ceasefire along the current lineswould end the killing and stillleave a long-term settlement betweenRussia and Ukraine possible. Last stated a month ago 26 Aug 2026 BM Branko Milanovic — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue bytariffing foreign countries ratherthan by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago 20 Jan 2025 DT Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off. — tap to centre the map on it A trade dispute escalated byaggressive tariffs can still end ina negotiated outcome that leaves allsides better off. Last stated a year ago 30 May 2025 GS Guy Spier — holds since 2025-05-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. — tap to centre the map on it Cutting off trade with tariffs wouldforce a huge interest-rate spike andprobably a debt crisis, because thebudget deficit would have to befinanced at home. Last stated a year ago 14 Apr 2025 JC John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The most likely districts to determine the House outcome can be identified in advance. Last stated 3 Oct 2026 · today Holds Brad DeLong Read this korrent →