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← Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike…
17 connected korrents · 12 moments from 1 Jun 2022 to 1 Oct 2026. Nearly all of them are about tariffs .
Everything filed under interest rates
interest rates
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under fiscal policy
fiscal policy Rests on Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. Last stated 2 years ago
14 Apr 2025
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are
Rests on: The American trade deficit is foreigners choosing to invest in America, not America being cheated. — tap to centre the map on it The American trade deficit is foreigners choosing to invest in America, not America being cheated. Last stated 2 years ago
14 Apr 2025
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off. — tap to centre the map on it A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off. Last stated a year ago
30 May 2025
GS
Guy Spier — holds since 2025-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America's large trade deficit in manufactured goods means fewer US manufacturing jobs than balanced trade would. — tap to centre the map on it America's large trade deficit in manufactured goods means fewer US manufacturing jobs than balanced trade would. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Erratic U.S. tariff implementation is teaching allies and enemies that the U.S. is no longer a reliable trading partner. — tap to centre the map on it Erratic U.S. tariff implementation is teaching allies and enemies that the U.S. is no longer a reliable trading partner. Last stated 8 months ago
9 Feb 2026
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2026-02-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Import prices have risen under Trump's tariffs, undercutting claims that foreigners would pay them. — tap to centre the map on it Import prices have risen under Trump's tariffs, undercutting claims that foreigners would pay them. Last stated a month ago
20 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy — tap to centre the map on it Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy Last stated 2 years ago
7 Apr 2025
SH
Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-04-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. — tap to centre the map on it Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Dec 2025
MH
Molson Hart — holds since 2025-12-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Strategic considerations now function as a floor rather than a ceiling on American tariff rates. — tap to centre the map on it Strategic considerations now function as a floor rather than a ceiling on American tariff rates. Last stated a year ago
16 Aug 2025
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2025-08-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. — tap to centre the map on it A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. — tap to centre the map on it Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure. — tap to centre the map on it Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. — tap to centre the map on it The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as primary assets — tap to centre the map on it Central banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as primary assets Last stated 3 weeks ago
1 Oct 2026
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home.
Holds Read this korrent →
The American trade deficit is foreigners choosing to invest in America, not America being cheated.
Holds
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.
Holds
A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off.
Holds
America's large trade deficit in manufactured goods means fewer US manufacturing jobs than balanced trade would.
Holds
Erratic U.S. tariff implementation is teaching allies and enemies that the U.S. is no longer a reliable trading partner.
Holds
Import prices have risen under Trump's tariffs, undercutting claims that foreigners would pay them.
Holds
Persistent US trade deficits are the mirror image of trade partners' capital account surpluses caused by beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policy
Holds
Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do.
Holds
Strategic considerations now function as a floor rather than a ceiling on American tariff rates.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.
Holds
A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.
Holds
Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.
Holds
Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure.
Holds
The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities.
Holds
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds
Central banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as primary assets
Holds