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← Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike…

16 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 5 Sept 2010 to 7 Sept 2026. Nearly all of them are about tariffs.

Everything filed under interest rates interest rates Everything filed under America America Everything filed under energy energy Everything filed under China China Rests onSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. Cutting off trade with tariffs would forcea huge interest-rate spike and probably adebt crisis, because the budget deficitwould have to be financed at home. Last stated a year ago 14 Apr 2025 JC John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are Rests on: The American trade deficit is foreigners choosing to invest in America, not America being cheated. — tap to centre the map on it The American trade deficit isforeigners choosing to invest inAmerica, not America being cheated. Last stated a year ago 14 Apr 2025 JC John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large trade deficit inmanufactured goods reduces itsmanufacturing employment below whatit would be with balanced trade. Last stated yesterday 7 Sept 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. — tap to centre the map on it Rebuilding American manufacturing isa decades-long educational andcultural project, not somethingtariffs can do. Last stated 8 months ago 25 Dec 2025 MH Molson Hart — holds since 2025-12-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: Reducing trade deficits and reviving manufacturing would not end the resentment fueling right-wing authoritarian movements. — tap to centre the map on it Reducing trade deficits and revivingmanufacturing would not end theresentment fueling right-wingauthoritarian movements. Last stated yesterday 7 Sept 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Tariff revenue is real but far too small to make a dent in the American deficit. — tap to centre the map on it Tariff revenue is real but far toosmall to make a dent in the Americandeficit. Last stated 6 months ago 24 Feb 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-02-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: Tariffs are beside the point in the energy race with China; what is actually costing America is environmental regulation, and Texas is out-deploying California ten to one because of it. — tap to centre the map on it Tariffs are beside the point in theenergy race with China; what isactually costing America isenvironmental regulation, and Texasis out-deploying California ten toone because of it. Last stated a year ago 15 Aug 2025 CH Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-08-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: Tariffs on Chinese clean energy reduce the total number of clean-energy jobs, because most of those jobs are in deployment rather than manufacturing. — tap to centre the map on it Tariffs on Chinese clean energyreduce the total number ofclean-energy jobs, because most ofthose jobs are in deployment ratherthan manufacturing. Last stated a year ago 15 May 2025 HR Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: Tariffs on imported components and machinery hurt the American manufacturers they are supposed to help. — tap to centre the map on it Tariffs on imported components andmachinery hurt the Americanmanufacturers they are supposed tohelp. Last stated 7 months ago 12 Feb 2026 MH Molson Hart — holds since 2025-04-06 — tap for who they are AV Austin Vernon — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: Tariffs will not fix what is wrong with global trade; they are a distortionary protectionist method and they will be bad for the country imposing them. — tap to centre the map on it Tariffs will not fix what is wrongwith global trade; they are adistortionary protectionist methodand they will be bad for the countryimposing them. Last stated a year ago 13 Aug 2025 KJ Keyu Jin — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it. — tap to centre the map on it A bank should be managed against thefat tails it can imagine, notagainst the stress test itsregulator hands it. Last stated a year ago 16 Jul 2025 JD Jamie Dimon — holds since 2025-07-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate aself-fulfilling ('sunspot') debtcrisis simply by credibly committingto buy as many bonds as needed atthe low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jun 2022 OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A fiscal expansion when the economy is already at potential output prompts monetary tightening that dampens or eliminates its effect on output. — tap to centre the map on it A fiscal expansion when the economyis already at potential outputprompts monetary tightening thatdampens or eliminates its effect onoutput. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jun 2022 OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it A government's debt dynamics are ahousehold's or a company's, exceptthat it can print money and tax --and those two powers are what changethe ending. Last stated 3 weeks ago 21 Aug 2026 RD Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. — tap to centre the map on it A longer average debt maturityprotects a government from temporaryinterest-rate spikes and gives itmore time to adjust to permanentrate increases. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jun 2022 OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. — tap to centre the map on it Canceling government bonds held by acentral bank creates no fiscalspace, because the reduction ingovernment interest payments isexactly offset by an equal reductionin the profits the central bankremits to the government. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jun 2022 OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them. — tap to centre the map on it Aggressive quantitative easingshould raise long-term interestrates, because effective monetarystimulus raises them. Last stated 16 years ago 6 Sept 2010 SS Scott Sumner — holds since 2010-09-05 — tap for who they are SS Scott Sumner — no longer holds since 2010-09-06 — tap for who they are
rests onsame subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2010 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone on record holding the claim — tap it for who they arefaded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind

At the centre Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. Last stated 14 Apr 2025 · a year ago Holds John H. Cochrane Read this korrent →