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← Most conditional branches in software are strongly biased toward one outcome rather than close to fifty-fifty.
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 2 Feb 2004 to 9 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
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SaaS
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AI alignment
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metascience
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Trauma
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coding agents Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Most conditional branches in software are strongly biased toward one outcome rather than close to fifty-fifty. Most conditional branches in software are strongly biased toward one outcome rather than close to fifty-fifty. Last stated a year ago
4 Jul 2025
NE
Nelson Elhage — holds since 2025-07-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In many software categories more than half of all prospects are now in market at once, against a historical three to five percent. — tap to centre the map on it In many software categories more than half of all prospects are now in market at once, against a historical three to five percent. Last stated 9 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As software projects grow more numerous, fast-moving, and interdependent, cross-project regressions become practically inevitable. — tap to centre the map on it As software projects grow more numerous, fast-moving, and interdependent, cross-project regressions become practically inevitable. Last stated 2 years ago
9 Mar 2025
NE
Nelson Elhage — holds since 2025-03-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The answer to weak studies of programming practice is to fund better ones, not to conclude that the question cannot be measured. — tap to centre the map on it The answer to weak studies of programming practice is to fund better ones, not to conclude that the question cannot be measured. Last stated 12 years ago
7 Nov 2014
DL
Dan Luu — holds since 2014-11-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong. Last stated 4 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The vast majority of software development projects fail — tap to centre the map on it The vast majority of software development projects fail Last stated 23 years ago
2 Feb 2004
JA
Jeff Atwood — holds since 2004-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others. — tap to centre the map on it The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others. Last stated a year ago
24 Apr 2025
SD
Saloni Dattani — holds since 2025-04-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Software lock-in is breaking, because rewriting just the 5% of an application you personally use is now within one person's reach. — tap to centre the map on it Software lock-in is breaking, because rewriting just the 5% of an application you personally use is now within one person's reach. Last stated 4 weeks ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model may have a worldview of its own, but it can never be placed above a person under any circumstance. — tap to centre the map on it A model may have a worldview of its own, but it can never be placed above a person under any circumstance. Last stated 4 months ago
3 Jun 2026
KH
Kelsey Hightower — holds since 2026-06-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model only days into training cannot be known to be aligned, and if such models can leap a generation ahead this fast then training pauses mean little and timelines are shorter than previously thought. — tap to centre the map on it A model only days into training cannot be known to be aligned, and if such models can leap a generation ahead this fast then training pauses mean little and timelines are shorter than previously thought. Last stated 2 weeks ago
9 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Too expensive" is never the real reason a customer cancels, because they already decided the price was acceptable when they bought. — tap to centre the map on it "Too expensive" is never the real reason a customer cancels, because they already decided the price was acceptable when they bought. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A best-in-class product should be priced at the point where customers say it is starting to get expensive, not at the point where they would call it a bargain. — tap to centre the map on it A best-in-class product should be priced at the point where customers say it is starting to get expensive, not at the point where they would call it a bargain. Last stated a year ago
23 Mar 2025
RV
Rahul Vohra — holds since 2025-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancelling customer already survived an improbable gauntlet to buy, which makes churn an emotional emergency before it is ever a metric. — tap to centre the map on it A cancelling customer already survived an improbable gauntlet to buy, which makes churn an emotional emergency before it is ever a metric. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 4 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Most conditional branches in software are strongly biased toward one outcome rather than close to fifty-fifty.
Holds Read this korrent →
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds
In many software categories more than half of all prospects are now in market at once, against a historical three to five percent.
Holds
As software projects grow more numerous, fast-moving, and interdependent, cross-project regressions become practically inevitable.
Holds
The answer to weak studies of programming practice is to fund better ones, not to conclude that the question cannot be measured.
Holds
Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong.
Holds
The vast majority of software development projects fail
Holds
The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others.
Holds
Software lock-in is breaking, because rewriting just the 5% of an application you personally use is now within one person's reach.
Holds
A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean.
Holds
A model may have a worldview of its own, but it can never be placed above a person under any circumstance.
Holds
A model only days into training cannot be known to be aligned, and if such models can leap a generation ahead this fast then training pauses mean little and timelines are shorter than previously thought.
Holds
"Too expensive" is never the real reason a customer cancels, because they already decided the price was acceptable when they bought.
Holds
A best-in-class product should be priced at the point where customers say it is starting to get expensive, not at the point where they would call it a bargain.
Holds
A cancelling customer already survived an improbable gauntlet to buy, which makes churn an emotional emergency before it is ever a metric.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds