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← The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to…
17 connected korrents · 17 moments on record from 23 Jun 2019 to 7 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under China
China
Everything filed under tariffs
tariffs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others. The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others. Last stated a year ago
24 Apr 2025
SD
Saloni Dattani — holds since 2025-04-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people. — tap to centre the map on it Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you… Last stated 5 years ago
15 Feb 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people. — tap to centre the map on it Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people. Last stated 5 years ago
2 Feb 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way. — tap to centre the map on it Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either… Last stated 3 years ago
11 Apr 2023
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2023-04-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: What limits science is how it is funded and organised, not how much money it gets. — tap to centre the map on it What limits science is how it is funded and organised, not how much money it gets. Last stated 7 years ago
23 Jun 2019
JR
José Luis Ricón — holds since 2019-06-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The most likely bad outcome is not a takeover but a gradual loss of control and understanding, as fewer and fewer people understand what we have layered everywhere. — tap to centre the map on it The most likely bad outcome is not a takeover but a gradual loss of control and understanding, as fewer and… Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: America holds half the world's market capitalisation because the world trusts it, and losing that trust would be a bad day for the United States. — tap to centre the map on it America holds half the world's market capitalisation because the world trusts it, and losing that trust would be a… Last stated 10 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Effective altruism demands hard evidence of effectiveness in some of its causes while accepting abstract conjecture in others, and never justifies the split. — tap to centre the map on it Effective altruism demands hard evidence of effectiveness in some of its causes while accepting abstract conjecture… Last stated 3 years ago
21 Dec 2023
MJ
Matt Johnson — holds since 2023-12-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the… Last stated 2 years ago
7 May 2024
BS
Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people… Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
KJ
Keyu Jin — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would… Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A few square miles at the Moon's south pole are the only lunar real estate that matters, and whoever gets there first sets the terms. — tap to centre the map on it A few square miles at the Moon's south pole are the only lunar real estate that matters, and whoever gets… Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them. — tap to centre the map on it A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power… Last stated 2 days ago
5 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. — tap to centre the map on it Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis… Last stated a year ago
14 Apr 2025
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do. — tap to centre the map on it Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not… Last stated 8 months ago
25 Dec 2025
MH
Molson Hart — holds since 2025-12-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Reducing trade deficits and reviving manufacturing would not end the resentment fueling right-wing authoritarian movements. — tap to centre the map on it Reducing trade deficits and reviving manufacturing would not end the resentment fueling right-wing authoritarian… Last stated today
7 Sept 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
The causes of an outcome cannot be divided into slices that add up to 100 per cent, so a large effect from one cause does not leave a small remainder for the others.
Holds SD Saloni DattaniRead this korrent →
Letting one calculation take over a giving decision is disturbing, and there is still a strong case for it if you want your ethics to be principled and about other people.
Holds HK Holden Karnofsky
Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people.
Holds HK Holden Karnofsky
Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way.
Holds AM Adam Mastroianni
What limits science is how it is funded and organised, not how much money it gets.
Holds JR José Luis Ricón
The most likely bad outcome is not a takeover but a gradual loss of control and understanding, as fewer and fewer people understand what we have layered everywhere.
Holds
America holds half the world's market capitalisation because the world trusts it, and losing that trust would be a bad day for the United States.
Holds SN Satya Nadella
Effective altruism demands hard evidence of effectiveness in some of its causes while accepting abstract conjecture in others, and never justifies the split.
Holds MJ Matt Johnson
A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail.
Holds BS Buck Shlegeris
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Holds CH Casey HandmerEB Eric Berger
A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation.
Holds KJ Keyu Jin
A country's large trade deficit in manufactured goods reduces its manufacturing employment below what it would be with balanced trade.
Holds PK Paul Krugman
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Holds HR Hannah Ritchie
A few square miles at the Moon's south pole are the only lunar real estate that matters, and whoever gets there first sets the terms.
Holds EB Eric Berger
A large, sustained AI capability lead by either the US or China could shift the global balance of power between them.
Holds
Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home.
Holds JC John H. Cochrane
Rebuilding American manufacturing is a decades-long educational and cultural project, not something tariffs can do.
Holds MH Molson Hart
Reducing trade deficits and reviving manufacturing would not end the resentment fueling right-wing authoritarian movements.
Holds PK Paul Krugman