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← Early in any endeavor there is no data, only informed guesses, and they should be treated as guesses.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 17 Mar 2020 to 21 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under taste
taste
Everything filed under OpenAI
OpenAI
Everything filed under Trauma
Trauma
Everything filed under startups
startups
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under innovation
innovation Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Early in any endeavor there is no data, only informed guesses, and they should be treated as guesses. Early in any endeavor there is no data, only informed guesses, and they should be treated as guesses. Last stated 9 months ago
30 Jan 2026
CW
Christina Wodtke — holds since 2026-01-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: You need to build early with AI to have any intuition for when the models become capable. — tap to centre the map on it You need to build early with AI to have any intuition for when the models become capable. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Sept 2026
MK
Mike Krieger — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Rather than coasting on intuition and taste, a data-informed person starts from the assumption that they know nothing. — tap to centre the map on it Rather than coasting on intuition and taste, a data-informed person starts from the assumption that they know nothing. Last stated 7 years ago
17 Mar 2020
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2020-03-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong. Last stated 6 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The industry was right to focus on model intelligence, but has not yet thought enough about giving a model more context than any person could have so it can advise on big decisions. — tap to centre the map on it The industry was right to focus on model intelligence, but has not yet thought enough about giving a model more context than any person could have so it can advise on big decisions. Last stated 2 months ago
23 Aug 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-08-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The fastest-growing companies are not using data well, because they reached enormous scale before they had time to build any of the instrumentation. — tap to centre the map on it The fastest-growing companies are not using data well, because they reached enormous scale before they had time to build any of the instrumentation. Last stated a year ago
21 Sept 2025
JZ
Julie Zhuo — holds since 2025-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut. — tap to centre the map on it Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests. — tap to centre the map on it Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Dec 2024
AN
Arvind Narayanan — holds since 2024-12-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes. — tap to centre the map on it The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes. Last stated 8 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A big part of taste is delivering high levels of craft in an accessible way so that as many people as possible can experience it. — tap to centre the map on it A big part of taste is delivering high levels of craft in an accessible way so that as many people as possible can experience it. Last stated 6 months ago
21 Apr 2026
BJ
Brandon Jacoby — holds since 2026-04-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company name can have different appeal to corporate buyers versus their customers. — tap to centre the map on it A company name can have different appeal to corporate buyers versus their customers. Last stated 4 weeks ago
4 Oct 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-10-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first draft should not be graded good or bad; it is only the material that taste then gets to act on. — tap to centre the map on it A first draft should not be graded good or bad; it is only the material that taste then gets to act on. Last stated 3 months ago
6 Aug 2026
GS
George Saunders — holds since 2026-08-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. — tap to centre the map on it A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Oct 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 9 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Early in any endeavor there is no data, only informed guesses, and they should be treated as guesses.
Holds Read this korrent →
You need to build early with AI to have any intuition for when the models become capable.
Holds
Rather than coasting on intuition and taste, a data-informed person starts from the assumption that they know nothing.
Holds
Coming into a project with a guess about what the data will show has, again and again, turned out to be wrong.
Holds
The industry was right to focus on model intelligence, but has not yet thought enough about giving a model more context than any person could have so it can advise on big decisions.
Holds
The fastest-growing companies are not using data well, because they reached enormous scale before they had time to build any of the instrumentation.
Holds
Teaching people a decision model is useless, because the intuition it rests on is built from experience and has no shortcut.
Holds
Industry leaders' predictions about AI are not more reliable than outside observers' because they are shaped by vested commercial interests.
Holds
The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
A big part of taste is delivering high levels of craft in an accessible way so that as many people as possible can experience it.
Holds
A company name can have different appeal to corporate buyers versus their customers.
Holds
A first draft should not be graded good or bad; it is only the material that taste then gets to act on.
Holds
A PHP vulnerability found with GPT-5.6 Sol will cause havoc this week.
Holds
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds