Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation.
17 connected korrents · 14 moments on record from 8 Mar 2012 to 16 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under government
government
Everything filed under design
design
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under startups
startups Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation. Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation. Last stated 2 days ago
16 Sept 2026
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-09-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every new drug has to beat the cheap generics that came before it, and that competition with our own back catalogue is why drug discovery gets harder over time. — tap to centre the map on it Every new drug has to beat the cheap generics that came before it, and that competition with our own back catalogue is why drug discovery gets harder over time. Last stated 15 years ago
8 Mar 2012
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2012-03-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter. — tap to centre the map on it Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter. Last stated a year ago
18 Aug 2025
BT
Bret Taylor — holds since 2025-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters. — tap to centre the map on it Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters. Last stated 2 days ago
16 Sept 2026
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2026-09-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. — tap to centre the map on it A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. Last stated 2 years ago
13 May 2024
DL
Derek Lowe — holds since 2024-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Better drug candidates do not shorten clinical trials, because a trial's duration is set by operational and regulatory friction rather than by how good the drug is. — tap to centre the map on it Better drug candidates do not shorten clinical trials, because a trial's duration is set by operational and regulatory friction rather than by how good the drug is. Last stated 7 months ago
28 Feb 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-02-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Making a commodity cheaply is a harder startup problem than making something valuable, because the product cannot carry a premium. — tap to centre the map on it Making a commodity cheaply is a harder startup problem than making something valuable, because the product cannot carry a premium. Last stated 2 years ago
6 Mar 2025
AV
Austin Vernon — holds since 2025-03-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The hard part of drug discovery is knowing what to make - which target is worth drugging - not designing the molecule. — tap to centre the map on it The hard part of drug discovery is knowing what to make - which target is worth drugging - not designing the molecule. Last stated 2 months ago
21 Jul 2026
AT
Alex Telford — holds since 2023-12-23 — tap for who they are
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-07-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Litigation is the wrong instrument for a public health problem that comes from what people choose to buy. — tap to centre the map on it Litigation is the wrong instrument for a public health problem that comes from what people choose to buy. Last stated 2 months ago
27 Jul 2026
SG
Scott Greenfield — holds since 2026-07-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. Last stated 2 weeks ago
1 Sept 2026
RB
Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country that builds a national health service becomes more aware of its own existence, because the experience of solidarity is what makes a nation real. — tap to centre the map on it A country that builds a national health service becomes more aware of its own existence, because the experience of solidarity is what makes a nation real. Last stated 3 weeks ago
30 Aug 2026
TS
Timothy Snyder — holds since 2026-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A federal officer can violate the Fourth Amendment and the victim still have no way to sue, because the Bivens remedy has been cut back to almost nothing. — tap to centre the map on it A federal officer can violate the Fourth Amendment and the victim still have no way to sue, because the Bivens remedy has been cut back to almost nothing. Last stated 8 months ago
22 Jan 2026
OK
Orin Kerr — holds since 2026-01-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. — tap to centre the map on it A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. Last stated 4 weeks ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. Last stated 4 weeks ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. — tap to centre the map on it A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. — tap to centre the map on it Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. — tap to centre the map on it Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. — tap to centre the map on it The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities. Last stated 4 weeks ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation.
Holds SA Scott AlexanderRead this korrent →
Every new drug has to beat the cheap generics that came before it, and that competition with our own back catalogue is why drug discovery gets harder over time.
Holds DL Derek Lowe
Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter.
Holds BT Bret Taylor
Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters.
Holds SA Scott Alexander
A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic.
Holds DL Derek Lowe
Better drug candidates do not shorten clinical trials, because a trial's duration is set by operational and regulatory friction rather than by how good the drug is.
Holds RT Ruxandra Teslo
Making a commodity cheaply is a harder startup problem than making something valuable, because the product cannot carry a premium.
Holds AV Austin Vernon
The hard part of drug discovery is knowing what to make - which target is worth drugging - not designing the molecule.
Holds AT Alex TelfordRT Ruxandra Teslo
Litigation is the wrong instrument for a public health problem that comes from what people choose to buy.
Holds SG Scott Greenfield
A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it.
Holds RB Radley Balko
A country that builds a national health service becomes more aware of its own existence, because the experience of solidarity is what makes a nation real.
Holds TS Timothy Snyder
A federal officer can violate the Fourth Amendment and the victim still have no way to sue, because the Bivens remedy has been cut back to almost nothing.
Holds OK Orin Kerr
A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.
Holds
A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.
Holds
A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.
Holds
Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.
Holds
Central bank purchases of government bonds are not bailouts and do not automatically cause inflation, since they only change the composition of the consolidated government's liabilities, not their total.
Holds
The late stage of the Big Debt Cycle shows itself as long rates leading rates up, the currency falling against gold, and the treasury shortening maturities.
Holds