Cheap superforecasting could revolutionize clinical trials and FDA regulation.

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• Every new drug has to beat the cheap generics that came before it, and that competition with our own back catalogue is why drug discovery gets harder over time. DLDerek Lowe8 Mar 2012similar wording
• Even generalised superintelligence will change society more slowly than the AGI community expects, because intelligence is not the only rate limiter. BTBret Taylor18 Aug 2025similar wording
• Within a few years, ordinary people will have on-demand AI superforecasters comparable to top human forecasters. SAScott Alexander16 Sept 2026similar wording
• A compound's AI origin story is not by itself a reason to expect it to do better in the clinic. DLDerek Lowe13 May 2024similar wording
• Better drug candidates do not shorten clinical trials, because a trial's duration is set by operational and regulatory friction rather than by how good the drug is. RTRuxandra Teslo28 Feb 2026similar wording

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