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← A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 7 May 2024 to 9 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under measuring intelligence measuring intelligence Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI. A strong track record in a technical fieldis only weak evidence that someone hasgood strategic judgment about AGI. Last stated 2 years ago 22 Mar 2025 NN Neel Nanda — holds since 2025-03-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lacka huge amount of knowledge and relyon continual learning instead, socontinual learning is whatsuperintelligence should mean. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitutefor a well-specified conventionalalgorithm, so it cannot simply bedropped into a complex problem andtrusted. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritiseowning a piece of AI over retrainingits workers, but it should not beteverything on that. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 PT Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial generalintelligence cannot exist withoutbeing recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago 10 Jun 2025 SH Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: Accelerating science will be one of the most stunningly positive outcomes of the push to AGI. — tap to centre the map on it Accelerating science will be one ofthe most stunningly positiveoutcomes of the push to AGI. Last stated 7 months ago 17 Apr 2026 KW Kevin Weil — holds since 2026-04-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: AGI is not a finish line to be crossed but a smear with width, and we are already standing on it. — tap to centre the map on it AGI is not a finish line to becrossed but a smear with width, andwe are already standing on it. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 PG Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: AGI might create a two-tier split in society — tap to centre the map on it AGI might create a two-tier split insociety Last stated a month ago 2 Oct 2026 PL Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-10-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Hire smart people and get out of their way" is bad management advice; leaders should stay closely involved, building trust and working through hard problems with their people to create alignment. — tap to centre the map on it "Hire smart people and get out oftheir way" is bad management advice;leaders should stay closelyinvolved, building trust and workingthrough hard problems with theirpeople to create alignment. Last stated 4 weeks ago 9 Oct 2026 CR Carl Rivera — holds since 2026-10-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm tonudge customers into behavior thatisn't good for them is doingsomething bad. Last stated a year ago 7 Oct 2025 MM Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reportsunder one per cent risk should beread as several per cent, becausethe evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago 7 May 2024 BS Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A unit of measure needs defining, perhaps via a chain of increasingly hard problems, each pair of which a single model can solve. — tap to centre the map on it A unit of measure needs defining,perhaps via a chain of increasinglyhard problems, each pair of which asingle model can solve. Last stated 2 months ago 15 Sept 2026 PG Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: An agent writing an operating system may be relatively easy because of patterns memorized in training data, so it says little about agents' ability to create novel software. — tap to centre the map on it An agent writing an operating systemmay be relatively easy because ofpatterns memorized in training data,so it says little about agents'ability to create novel software. Last stated 5 months ago 22 May 2026 SK Sayash Kapoor — holds since 2026-05-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: Being able to statistically predict what someone will say does not mean you understand them. — tap to centre the map on it Being able to statistically predictwhat someone will say does not meanyou understand them. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Sept 2026 CD Cory Doctorow — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value. — tap to centre the map on it "Return on tokens" has the samemeasurement problems as hours andcapacity: it still hinges on atheory of value. Last stated 3 months ago 17 Aug 2026 JC John Cutler — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email isevidence of a bad vendor, not of alimit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago 1 Jan 2026 JL Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does notgive you a smarter model; theintelligence of the model is whatdecides how much of that window itcan actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago 15 Jul 2026 DH Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
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At the centre A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI. Last stated 22 Mar 2025 · 2 years ago Holds Neel Nanda Read this korrent →