What Scott Aaronson thinks about AGI
Theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, known for work on quantum computing and computational complexity. Writes the blog Shtetl-Optimized, where he has kept both his old forecasts and his later verdicts on them in public.
Scott Aaronson did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
Only Scott Aaronson on AGI. See everyone on AGI
4 dated positions, 2008 to 2023, in their own words. Our reading of what Scott Aaronson has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Our reading · no longer heldHuman-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
No longer holdsI was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
SaidOnce I saw the empirical case that a generative AI revolution was imminent—sometime during the pandemic—I updated, hard.
↗On being wrong about AIscottaaronson.blog 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading · no longer heldHuman-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
No longer holdsI was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
SaidOnce I saw the empirical case that a generative AI revolution was imminent—sometime during the pandemic—I updated, hard.
↗On being wrong about AIscottaaronson.blog 2nd of 3 in this piece
- 15 years earlier
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Their wordsIf I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I’d say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia (with the obvious potential for black swans along the way).
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Their wordsIf I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I'd say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia