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Samo Burja

@samo-burja · 12 positions · 0 changes of mind

Founder of the consultancy Bismarck Analysis and author of Great Founder Theory, writing about how institutions are built, how they decay, and why civilisations collapse.

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  1. Despite being an excellent epistemic opportunity, civilizational collapse seldom inspires introspection among thinkers living through it. Mayan or Roman thinkers don’t seem to have reflected on their ongoing collapse.

    Why Civilizations Collapsesamoburja.com 1st of 4 in this piece

  2. We act as if we are already living in a scientifically-planned society, immune to collapse on a time scale that any of us have to worry about.

    Why Civilizations Collapsesamoburja.com 2nd of 4 in this piece

  3. Though we usually think of collapse as a slow process, it can in fact happen very quickly, as was the case with the Late Bronze Age collapse.

    Why Civilizations Collapsesamoburja.com 3rd of 4 in this piece

  4. That knowledge never should have been lost in the first place, but in a dysfunctional society, such loss of knowledge becomes the rule.

    Why Civilizations Collapsesamoburja.com 4th of 4 in this piece

  5. 2 years earlier
  6. The succession problem has two components: power succession (handing off the reins of the institution, keeping it piloted) and skill succession (transferring the skill needed to pilot the institution well, keeping it a live player).

    The Succession Problemsamoburja.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  7. Silicon Valley enthuses over “disruption” because we have become so used to the succession problem remaining unsolved within discrete institutions such as companies.

    The Succession Problemsamoburja.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  8. Functioning firms are repositories of many kinds of capital that cannot be liquidated, and when they die, it is destroyed.

    The Succession Problemsamoburja.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  9. 4 weeks earlier
  10. And just as a tornado cannot assemble a Boeing 747 by passing through a junkyard, functional institutions are not spontaneously generated. The machinery, if it functions, was assembled by someone with good judgment: the institution’s founder.

    Functional Institutions are the Exceptionsamoburja.com 1st of 2 in this piece

  11. It is much more difficult to make a dysfunctional institution functional than to create a functional institution from scratch; institutions will nearly always have internal forces that resist change, and diagnosing institutional dysfunction in the first place is challenging.

    Functional Institutions are the Exceptionsamoburja.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

  12. 2 months earlier
  13. Discerning whether an institution is near failure is a difficult epistemic problem. There are many outwardly visible pieces of institutions that do not reflect their actual health.

    Institutional Failure as Surprisesamoburja.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  14. Decay is in fact the rule: the maintenance of old institutional abilities is difficult, and the growth of new ones is rare.

    Institutional Failure as Surprisesamoburja.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  15. An easy way to avoid spoiling a reputation is by never failing, and an easy way to never visibly fail is to never undertake a task.

    Institutional Failure as Surprisesamoburja.com 3rd of 3 in this piece