What Philip Tetlock thinks about politics
Psychologist and political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania; author of Expert Political Judgment (2005), which compared forecasters he called foxes and hedgehogs, and co-author of Superforecasting (2015).
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1 dated position, 2012, in their own words. Our reading of what Philip Tetlock has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Their wordsForecasters who were more modest about what could be accomplished predictably were actually generating more accurate predictions than forecasters who were more confident about what could be achieved. We called these theoretically confident forecasters "hedgehogs." We called these more modest, self-critical forecasters "foxes," drawing on Isaiah Berlin's famous essay, "The Hedgehog and the Fox."
↗How to Win at Forecasting (Edge conversation)edge.org 1st of 2 in this piece