korrents

Our readingWhat is a korrent?

Forecasters modest about how predictable politics is, the 'foxes', made more accurate predictions than theoretically confident 'hedgehogs'.

Drawn from what Philip Tetlock said

Subjectpolitics
What this subject means

politics How people actually hold political views: tribes, partisanship, and whether anybody reasons their way in.

Mental modelMany models, not one

On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: One model is never enough: carry many, from many fields, or every problem looks like a nail

What Philip Tetlock actually said

  1. Philip Tetlock Psychologist and political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania
    Forecasters who were more modest about what could be accomplished predictably were actually generating more accurate predictions than forecasters who were more confident about what could be achieved. We called these theoretically confident forecasters "hedgehogs." We called these more modest, self-critical forecasters "foxes," drawing on Isaiah Berlin's famous essay, "The Hedgehog and the Fox."

    Where this was said

    ↗How to Win at Forecasting (Edge conversation)edge.org

    6 Dec 2012

    All 2 korrents from this piecethis one is 1st

Added to korrents 9 Oct 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us

Do you hold this korrent?Do you also believe this?

I hold this too

Related korrents

Shared subject first, then similar wording. They may agree or disagree.

See this claim on the map