What Philip Tetlock thinks about China
Psychologist and political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania; author of Expert Political Judgment (2005), which compared forecasters he called foxes and hedgehogs, and co-author of Superforecasting (2015).
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
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Only Philip Tetlock on China. See everyone on China
1 dated position, 2012, in their own words. Our reading of what Philip Tetlock has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Their wordsIf you're a fox and you believe there's some truth to the generalization that rising powers and hegemons tend to come into conflict with each other, but there are lots of other factors in play in the current geopolitical environment that make it less likely that China and the United States will come into conflict. That doesn't allow blink anymore, does it? It leads to "on the one hand, and on the other" patterns of reasoning–and you've got to strike some kind of integrative resolution of the conflicting arguments.
↗How to Win at Forecasting (Edge conversation)edge.org 2nd of 2 in this piece