Our readingWhat is a korrent?
Drawn from what Philip Tetlock said
Mental modelMany models, not one
On the topicWhich mental models help you think better?under our view: One model is never enough: carry many, from many fields, or every problem looks like a nail
If you're a fox and you believe there's some truth to the generalization that rising powers and hegemons tend to come into conflict with each other, but there are lots of other factors in play in the current geopolitical environment that make it less likely that China and the United States will come into conflict. That doesn't allow blink anymore, does it? It leads to "on the one hand, and on the other" patterns of reasoning–and you've got to strike some kind of integrative resolution of the conflicting arguments.
Where this was said
↗How to Win at Forecasting (Edge conversation)edge.org
All 2 korrents from this piecethis one is 2nd
Added to korrents 9 Oct 2026 · How quotes work · Something wrong? Tell us
Do you hold this korrent?Do you also believe this?
I hold this tooShared subject first, then similar wording. They may agree or disagree.