@paul-krugman · 80 positions · 1 change of mind · On ppll ↗
Trade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work on economic geography, professor emeritus at Princeton and the CUNY Graduate Center, and a New York Times columnist from 1999 to 2024. Now writes on Substack.
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Their wordsTrump also claimed that his tariffs would revive American manufacturing. In fact, manufacturing employment has declined since Liberation Day.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…Contrary to Trump administration expectations and predictions, there has been no revival of U.S. manufacturing employment, and investment in manufacturing — at least as measured by construction spending — has fallen off a cliff.↗Why Does Everyone Hate Trump’s Tariffs?paulkrugman.substack.com · 20 Sept 2026
Their wordsContrary to Trump administration expectations and predictions, there has been no revival of U.S. manufacturing employment, and investment in manufacturing — at least as measured by construction spending — has fallen off a cliff.
Their wordsThe point is that large-scale international trade, while it may sometimes serve the cause of peace, can also create the potential for conflict.
Their wordsEurope, along with China and the United States, is an economic superpower. And, at this point in time, it is arguably the world’s only democratic superpower.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…actually, there are three economic superpowers in the world by this measure. There’s the United States, there’s China, which is clearly number one, and then there’s the EU, which are roughly co-equal.↗Economic Size and Economic Powerpaulkrugman.substack.com · 19 Sept 2026
Their wordsactually, there are three economic superpowers in the world by this measure. There’s the United States, there’s China, which is clearly number one, and then there’s the EU, which are roughly co-equal.
Their wordsChina is not yet big enough to be the hegemon, but the United States truly is not big enough to be the hegemon. So we are just not in that world anymore.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…I don’t think it’s responsible for high long-term rates, any more than Bill Clinton was responsible for high rates in the late 1990s. This looks like the natural market response to the rush to invest in AI.↗Bessent and the Bondspaulkrugman.substack.com · 10 Sept 2026
Their wordsI don’t think it’s responsible for high long-term rates, any more than Bill Clinton was responsible for high rates in the late 1990s. This looks like the natural market response to the rush to invest in AI.
Their wordsBut there is no question who is responsible for the resurgence in inflation: this is all on Trump, first the tariffs and then then the Iran war.
Their wordsMy basic point — that Trump inherited a relatively benign inflation picture and threw that inheritance away with his tariffs and war — is even clearer from the PPI than the CPI.
Their wordsAnd while presidents usually have much less influence on the economy than is generally recognized, the current outbreak of high inflation is all on Donald Trump.
Their wordsAnd there’s a big risk that the succession of inflation shocks will do what the post-Covid shock didn’t: get entrenched in expectations, so that we will need a recession to get inflation back down.
Their wordsBut if one combines a closer look at these numbers with a more realistic understanding of public opinion, this poll actually shows that corruption is becoming a serious G.O.P. problem.
Their wordsThe level of corruption that Trump has engaged in and enabled in others is completely unprecedented – self-dealing that, as Trump would say, is like nothing anybody has ever seen before.
Their wordsFirst, Trump and his inner circle don’t just love autocrats. They hate democracy and rule of law — which means that they hate America and American values.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…Unfortunately, a corrupt, partisan majority on the Supreme Court, invoking the “unitary executive” theory, has given Trump a huge amount of untrammeled power, especially because he is surrounded by minions — many approved by supine Republicans in Congress — who are willing, even eager to break the law.↗Nerobefehl Nationpaulkrugman.substack.com · 14 Oct 2026
Their wordsUnfortunately, a corrupt, partisan majority on the Supreme Court, invoking the “unitary executive” theory, has given Trump a huge amount of untrammeled power, especially because he is surrounded by minions — many approved by supine Republicans in Congress — who are willing, even eager to break the law.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…At a fundamental level, they’re just hostile to the idea of expertise in any domain, in pretty much every agency where there’s something to know, where there’s technical stuff that you need to know to make good decisions. The people who actually know things, or the people who are willing to speak up about what they know, have been silenced, purged.↗Where’s the Beef (Coming From)?paulkrugman.substack.com · 8 Sept 2026
Their wordsAt a fundamental level, they’re just hostile to the idea of expertise in any domain, in pretty much every agency where there’s something to know, where there’s technical stuff that you need to know to make good decisions. The people who actually know things, or the people who are willing to speak up about what they know, have been silenced, purged.
Their wordsIt’s an administration that’s trying to turn us back to the 19th century or before. It’s really just trying to undo even the most essential functions of government.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…And in a democracy, the rights of private property don’t and never have included the right to act against the nation’s interest — where democratically elected representatives of the people, not business owners, should decide what is in the nation’s interest.↗It’s Time to Take Starlink Away from Elon Muskpaulkrugman.substack.com · 22 Oct 2026
Their wordsAnd in a democracy, the rights of private property don’t and never have included the right to act against the nation’s interest — where democratically elected representatives of the people, not business owners, should decide what is in the nation’s interest.
Their wordsThis is actually telling you that having national security interests explicitly under control of elected politicians is a good thing even if the politicians have bad intentions.
Their wordsIn Machiavellian terms, Trump is no longer feared, and he's definitely no longer liked. Instead, he is hated - which is the one thing Machiavelli stressed should be avoided at all costs.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…It’s at least arguable that Ukraine’s air campaign, which has done much more damage to Russia’s refining than to its crude production, has therefore played a disproportionate role in driving up diesel prices.↗Of Donald and Dieselpaulkrugman.substack.com · 21 Sept 2026
Their wordsIt’s at least arguable that Ukraine’s air campaign, which has done much more damage to Russia’s refining than to its crude production, has therefore played a disproportionate role in driving up diesel prices.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…Furthermore, rising diesel prices are even more likely than rising gasoline prices to drive up interest rates. Why? The Federal Reserve, which sets short-term interest rates, normally focuses on “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices.↗Of Donald and Dieselpaulkrugman.substack.com · 21 Sept 2026
Their wordsFurthermore, rising diesel prices are even more likely than rising gasoline prices to drive up interest rates. Why? The Federal Reserve, which sets short-term interest rates, normally focuses on “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…Aside from the outrageous nature of his demands, Trump’s remarks were interesting because they reveal the extent to which refined products, especially diesel, have replaced crude oil as the key bottleneck in the global energy crisis.↗Of Donald and Dieselpaulkrugman.substack.com · 21 Sept 2026
Their wordsAside from the outrageous nature of his demands, Trump’s remarks were interesting because they reveal the extent to which refined products, especially diesel, have replaced crude oil as the key bottleneck in the global energy crisis.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…So a diesel export ban would probably do little to assuage U.S. concerns about affordability. It would create uncertainty that deters business investment, in energy and other industries. And it would further weaken America’s hand in its geopolitical rivalry with China over energy.↗Donald the Deadbeat Does Dieselpaulkrugman.substack.com · 24 Sept 2026
Their wordsSo a diesel export ban would probably do little to assuage U.S. concerns about affordability. It would create uncertainty that deters business investment, in energy and other industries. And it would further weaken America’s hand in its geopolitical rivalry with China over energy.
Paul KrugmanTrade economist, Nobel laureate in 2008 for his work…But in this case “the rest of the world” includes much of the United States. Both the Northeast and the West Coast buy much of their diesel (and heating oil, which is a closely related commodity) from other countries, so a ban on U.S. exports, by driving up world prices, would actually make energy more expensive in some parts of the country.↗Donald the Deadbeat Does Dieselpaulkrugman.substack.com · 24 Sept 2026
Their wordsBut in this case “the rest of the world” includes much of the United States. Both the Northeast and the West Coast buy much of their diesel (and heating oil, which is a closely related commodity) from other countries, so a ban on U.S. exports, by driving up world prices, would actually make energy more expensive in some parts of the country.