korrents

What Nick Maggiulli thinks about stock market

@nick-maggiulli · 9 positions · 1 change of mind

Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data and author of Just Keep Buying; COO at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Everything they publish, on ppll ↗

Nick Maggiulli did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

5 dated positions, 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Nick Maggiulli has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our reading · no longer heldThe froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.

    No longer holdsSince then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.

    SaidMy issue wasn’t that the parallels didn’t exist—they did. My issue was that much of the speculative stuff of 2021 ended up failing (NFTs, DeFi, etc.) while much of the speculative stuff of 2025 (AI) seems to be succeeding.

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com 1st of 5 in this piece

    America

    Interesting

  3. Our readingThe S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio no longer signals what it once did, because today’s companies earn higher margins.

    Their wordsTherefore, the only correct interpretation of the P/S ratio over the last decade is that it doesn’t signal what it used to.

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com 2nd of 5 in this piece

    Interesting

  5. Our readingThe base rate for US stocks over any one year is that they rise, and forgetting it is how market calls go wrong.

    Their wordsthe base rate for U.S. stock performance (in aggregate) over one year is that they go up

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com 3rd of 5 in this piece

    America

    Interesting

  7. Our readingAn investor's starting point should be the portfolio that is best to hold independent of any tactical market view

    Their wordsit’s better to have a portfolio that can handle stocks whether they are overvalued or not

    ↗Why I Was Wrong to Be Bearish on U.S. Stocksofdollarsanddata.com 4th of 5 in this piece

    investing

    Interesting
  8. 4 weeks earlier

  9. Our readingRefusing to commit is the right strategy inside a portfolio and the wrong one everywhere else in life.

    Their wordsIn investing, non-commitment leads to better than average outcomes for the typical investor.

    ↗The Problem with Optionalityofdollarsanddata.com 1st of 2 in this piece

    investing

    Interesting