Chief Scientist at OpenAI. Worked on the research that turned scaled reinforcement learning into reasoning models, and writes about where he thinks that path leads.
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5 of Jakub Pachocki's claims fit 4 mental models. Most often: Margin of safety, Bottlenecks, Collective action problems.
A system moves only as fast as its narrowest point; speed up anything else and nothing changes.
Their wordsStill, I expect general AI progress to increasingly be bottlenecked by confidence in monitoring.
Leave room for being wrong, because sometimes you will be.
Their wordsScaling AI systems has to be constrained by our confidence in safety.
Their wordsI expect and hope for voluntary slowdowns to become commonplace until shared safety bars are established.
What everyone would gain from, nobody provides alone, so shared goods need someone or something to hold people together.
Their wordsAnd I believe that international coordination on future AI development needs to become a top priority for governments around the world.
Whole systems do things none of their parts do, and nobody has to design that order for it to appear.
Their wordsAI is grown more than designed - it is, to first degree, the product of repeating a straightforward optimization step many times on a hard-to-imagine amount of compute.