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Where does the energy come from, and what is stopping it?

Top voices on energy: Hannah Ritchie, Ramez Naam, Elon Musk, Emmanuel Macron, Noah Smith and 6 others.

Once about which technology would win, now mostly about what can actually get built.

13 dated claims from 11 people · 4 views · 1 change of mind · most recent 3 Sept 2026

The views

Our reading of what a group of claims have in common, one level above a korrent: a korrent is our reading of what somebody said, a view is our reading of what several korrents share. The claims are printed under it, so the sentence can be checked against them.

Nobody is filed under a view — claims are. A person is named here because a dated claim of theirs sits under it, and somebody whose claims sit under two views appears under both.

  1. Solar and storage have already won on cost, and the price keeps falling

    Noah SmithRamez Naam

  2. What is scarce is not the technology but permission to build

    Tyler CowenElon MuskPaul GrahamHannah RitchieAlon LevyThomas Ptacek

  3. Abundant energy is the precondition for everything else a country wants

    Noah SmithUrsula von der LeyenEmmanuel Macron

  4. Several of the received worries about energy use are aimed at the wrong number

    Hannah RitchieSimon Willison

A viewour reading

Solar and storage have already won on cost, and the price keeps falling

3 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Solar power has, broadly speaking, won the energy technology race because good, cheap batteries now make it reliable.

  1. Noah Smith Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter Because solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable. Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog · 3 Sept 2026
    Their wordsBecause solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.

    ↗Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog

    3 Sept 2026

Show all 3 claims

Average solar electricity prices in sunny parts of the world will fall to one or two cents per kwh by 2030 or 2035.

  1. Ramez Naam Author and clean-energy investor who has been publishing… This incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable. Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)rameznaam.com · 14 May 2020
    Their wordsThis incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable.

    ↗Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)rameznaam.com

    14 May 2020

After four more doublings of installed solar capacity, solar electricity will cost about 3 cents per kwh in the sunniest areas and 4.5 cents per kwh in moderately sunny areas.

Filed here becauseA cost forecast its author has since stepped back from — the change of mind is below.

  1. Ramez Naam · held 5 years Author and clean-energy investor who has been publishing… Both of those forecasts were wrong. Solar has plunged in price faster than anyone – including me – predicted. Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)rameznaam.com · 14 May 2020

    No longer holdsBoth of those forecasts were wrong. Solar has plunged in price faster than anyone – including me – predicted.

    ↗Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020)rameznaam.com

    14 May 2020

A viewour reading

What is scarce is not the technology but permission to build

5 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Americans have repeatedly overreacted drastically to real problems like DDT, Y2K, and nuclear power, swept up in fear after one vivid incident.

Filed here becauseNot about energy directly — it is about how public reaction to a vivid incident decides what a society is allowed to build, and it names nuclear power as one of its cases.

  1. Tyler Cowen Economist at George Mason University Yet each time, we drastically overreacted, letting ourselves get swept up in a climate of fear after one emotionally vivid incident The Hugging Face hackmarginalrevolution.com · 1 Sept 2026
    Their wordsYet each time, we drastically overreacted, letting ourselves get swept up in a climate of fear after one emotionally vivid incident

    ↗The Hugging Face hackmarginalrevolution.com

    1 Sept 2026

Show all 5 claims

The binding constraint on AI is not chips but the physical plant around them — power, transformers, cooling and networking.

Mental modelBottlenecks

  1. Elon Musk Founded SpaceX in 2002 Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking. @elonmusk on Xx.com · 29 Aug 2026
    Their wordsConsensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking.

    ↗@elonmusk on Xx.com

    29 Aug 2026

Blocking data center construction in America would not slow the rate of AI progress, only the rate of AI progress in America.

  1. Paul Graham Co-founder of Y Combinator and Viaweb Preventing companies from building data centers in America wouldn't slow down the rate of progress in AI. It would merely slow down the rate of progress in AI in America. @paulg on Xx.com · 22 Aug 2026
    Their wordsPreventing companies from building data centers in America wouldn't slow down the rate of progress in AI. It would merely slow down the rate of progress in AI in America.

    ↗@paulg on Xx.com

    22 Aug 2026

Britain has a systemic problem building large infrastructure projects, including reservoirs

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World I think Britain has a real problem with building almost anything, from train lines to houses, and reservoirs to energy infrastructure. The UK needs to build more reservoirshannahritchie.substack.com · 18 Aug 2026
    Their wordsI think Britain has a real problem with building almost anything, from train lines to houses, and reservoirs to energy infrastructure.

    ↗The UK needs to build more reservoirshannahritchie.substack.com

    18 Aug 2026

  2. Alon Levy Mathematician turned transport researcher It’s turned entire countries, like the United Kingdom, incapable of building more than about one line per generation. Meme Weeding: High Wages and Baumol's Cost Diseasepedestrianobservations.com · 22 Jun 2024All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIt’s turned entire countries, like the United Kingdom, incapable of building more than about one line per generation.

    ↗Meme Weeding: High Wages and Baumol's Cost Diseasepedestrianobservations.com

    22 Jun 2024

Data centre opposition only pushes construction to the parts of America that regulate energy and pollution least.

Mental modelSecond-order thinking

  1. Thomas Ptacek Security engineer; founder of Matasano Security and Latacora It seems pretty clear that the only thing data center opposition is doing is pushing data center construction to the (many) places in America that won't regulate energy or pollution. Weird thing to pat oneself on the back for. @tqbf on Xx.com · 10 Aug 2026
    Their wordsIt seems pretty clear that the only thing data center opposition is doing is pushing data center construction to the (many) places in America that won't regulate energy or pollution. Weird thing to pat oneself on the back for.

    ↗@tqbf on Xx.com

    10 Aug 2026

A viewour reading

Abundant energy is the precondition for everything else a country wants

3 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

An economy needs lots of energy consumption in order to escape poverty.

  1. Noah Smith Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter It’s a simple truth that if you want your economy to escape poverty, you need lots of energy consumption Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog · 3 Sept 2026
    Their wordsIt’s a simple truth that if you want your economy to escape poverty, you need lots of energy consumption

    ↗Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog

    3 Sept 2026

Show all 3 claims

This is Europe's independence moment: it must be able to provide its own defence and control the technology and energy its economy runs on.

  1. Ursula von der Leyen President of the European Commission since 2019 This must be Europe's Independence Moment. I believe this is our Union's mission. To be able to take care of our own defence and security. To take control over the technologies and energies that will fuel our economies. 2025 State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen, 10 September 2025enlargement.ec.europa.eu · 10 Sept 2025
    Their wordsThis must be Europe's Independence Moment. I believe this is our Union's mission. To be able to take care of our own defence and security. To take control over the technologies and energies that will fuel our economies.

    ↗2025 State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen, 10 September 2025enlargement.ec.europa.eu

    10 Sept 2025

The era in which Europe bought its energy from Russia, had its goods made in China and left its security to the United States is over.

  1. Emmanuel Macron President of the French Republic since 2017 And so yes, the era when Europe bought its energy and fertilizers from Russia, had its goods manufactured in China, and delegated its security to the United States of America, is over. Speech on Europe, Sorbonne, 25 April 2024 (Elysee English transcript)elysee.fr · 25 Apr 2024
    Their wordsAnd so yes, the era when Europe bought its energy and fertilizers from Russia, had its goods manufactured in China, and delegated its security to the United States of America, is over.

    ↗Speech on Europe, Sorbonne, 25 April 2024 (Elysee English transcript)elysee.fr

    25 Apr 2024

A viewour reading

Several of the received worries about energy use are aimed at the wrong number

2 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Supplying drinking and household water through desalination is quite cheap and uses far less energy than the author had guessed.

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World Supplying drinking and household water through desalination is really quite cheap, and uses far less energy than I’d have guessed. Forget more reservoirs; should the UK just build desalination plants instead?hannahritchie.substack.com · 31 Aug 2026
    Their wordsSupplying drinking and household water through desalination is really quite cheap, and uses far less energy than I’d have guessed.

    ↗Forget more reservoirs; should the UK just build desalination plants instead?hannahritchie.substack.com

    31 Aug 2026

Concerns about the energy cost of an individual LLM prompt are no longer credible, though the environmental impact of the AI datacenter buildout remains a real worry.

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World Unless you’re an extreme power user, asking AI questions every day is still a rounding error on your total electricity footprint. What's the carbon footprint of using ChatGPT?hannahritchie.substack.com · 6 May 2025
    Their wordsUnless you’re an extreme power user, asking AI questions every day is still a rounding error on your total electricity footprint.

    ↗What's the carbon footprint of using ChatGPT?hannahritchie.substack.com

    6 May 2025

  2. Simon Willison Co-creator of Django and creator of Datasette There’s still plenty to worry about with respect to the environmental impact of the great AI datacenter buildout, but a lot of the concerns over the energy cost of individual prompts are no longer credible. Things we learned about LLMs in 2024simonwillison.net · 31 Dec 2024
    Their wordsThere’s still plenty to worry about with respect to the environmental impact of the great AI datacenter buildout, but a lot of the concerns over the energy cost of individual prompts are no longer credible.

    ↗Things we learned about LLMs in 2024simonwillison.net

    31 Dec 2024

Who has changed their mind

  1. Ramez Naam · · held 5 years

    No longer holdsAfter four more doublings of installed solar capacity, solar electricity will cost about 3 cents per kwh in the sunniest areas and 4.5 cents per kwh in moderately sunny areas.

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