korrents

← People and their mental models

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's mental models

2 claims Nassim Nicholas Taleb made fit 2 mental models. Most often: Power laws, Probabilistic thinking. Everything they said here.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Power laws

In many things a few cases account for most of the result, so the average misleads and the outlier decides.

Others who think with this model

Albert-László BarabásiBen CarlsonBill GurleyBrian PotterJamie DimonMike Kriegerand 3 more

Open the model page

With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary

  1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Former option trader and risk analyst This absence of "typical" event in Extremistan is what makes prediction markets ludicrous, as they make events look binary. The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org · 14 Sept 2008All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThis absence of "typical" event in Extremistan is what makes prediction markets ludicrous, as they make events look binary.

    ↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org

    14 Sept 2008

In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims

Mental modelProbabilistic thinking

  1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Former option trader and risk analyst Here is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims. The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org · 14 Sept 2008All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsHere is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims.

    ↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org

    14 Sept 2008

Probabilistic thinking

Think in odds, not certainties, and bet heavily only when the odds are clearly yours.

Others who think with this model

Shane ParrishCharlie MungerDaniel KahnemanMorgan HouselIsaiah TaylorJason Cohenand 3 more

Open the model page

In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims

Mental modelPower laws

  1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Former option trader and risk analyst Here is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims. The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org · 14 Sept 2008All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsHere is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims.

    ↗The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008)edge.org

    14 Sept 2008