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← People and their mental models

Austin Vernon's mental models

6 claims Austin Vernon made fit 4 mental models. Most often: Bottlenecks, Margin of safety, Second-order thinking. Everything they said here.

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Bottlenecks

A system moves only as fast as its narrowest point; speed up anything else and nothing changes.

Used by 88 others

Mass production is no longer what limits a rich country's military power; trained people and a technological edge are.

  1. Austin Vernon Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts… The modern world is so bountiful that mass production is no longer the limiting factor. Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site · 12 Feb 2026All korrents from this piece
    The modern world is so bountiful that mass production is no longer the limiting factor.

The constraint on point-to-point air travel is runway and tarmac capacity, not room in the sky.

  1. Austin Vernon by Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts… There is much more space in the air than on the airport tarmac. Our current hub and spoke system means some hub airports operate near runway capacity already. Air Travel Doesn't Have to be Terribleaustinvernon.site · by 25 Oct 2021All korrents from this piece
    There is much more space in the air than on the airport tarmac. Our current hub and spoke system means some hub airports operate near runway capacity already.

What stands between us and cheap lightweight vehicles is that they are illegal, not that they are hard to build.

  1. Austin Vernon by Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts… Cheap, lightweight people movers are currently illegal in many situations, so regulation is a barrier. Human Driving Increases Transportation Cost 10xaustinvernon.site · by 10 Nov 2024All korrents from this piece
    Cheap, lightweight people movers are currently illegal in many situations, so regulation is a barrier.

Margin of safety

Leave room for being wrong, because sometimes you will be.

Used by 25 others

Most of what a car costs is the weight and structure needed to survive human driving error, not the transport it delivers.

  1. Austin Vernon by Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts… Humans being awful drivers leads to a massive increase in vehicle costs and weight, makes cars more dangerous to people outside of them, and imposes significant costs on infrastructure like roads. Human Driving Increases Transportation Cost 10xaustinvernon.site · by 10 Nov 2024All korrents from this piece
    Humans being awful drivers leads to a massive increase in vehicle costs and weight, makes cars more dangerous to people outside of them, and imposes significant costs on infrastructure like roads.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Used by 86 others

Tariffs on imported components and machinery hurt the American manufacturers they are supposed to help.

  1. Austin Vernon Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts… These end manufacturers (new and old) are vulnerable to tariffs on their inputs and they are the buyers that the "speed strategy" is relevant for. Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site · 12 Feb 2026All korrents from this piece
    These end manufacturers (new and old) are vulnerable to tariffs on their inputs and they are the buyers that the "speed strategy" is relevant for.

Value moves to what stays scarce

When something becomes cheap and plentiful, the value moves to whatever is still rare next to it.

Used by 59 others

An industrial robot does not replace labour, it shifts labour from hourly workers to scarce skilled ones.

  1. Austin Vernon Engineer and investor who writes quantitative posts… The key is that robot arms are not labor-replacing, but labor-shifting. Speed Can Reindustrialize Americaaustinvernon.site · 12 Feb 2026All korrents from this piece
    The key is that robot arms are not labor-replacing, but labor-shifting.