Marriage and birth rates are collapsing across the Middle East and North Africa even though religiosity there has not weakened.

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• A model fitted only to trends in its own outcome cannot forecast anything, because it contains no variable anyone could change. LSLyman Stone20 Aug 2026demographics
• A religion cannot revive itself by encouraging its members to have more children. RBRyan Burge24 Aug 2026demographics
• Any theory of the fall in birth rates must explain both the worldwide collapse and the differences between countries, and most theories explain only one. AEAlice Evans1 Nov 2024demographics
• Birth rates can move in whatever direction a society chooses, whenever it chooses; there is no ratchet. LSLyman Stone15 Jul 2025demographics
• Calling the fall in birth rates a mystery is not humility but obscurantism: there is already a good causal account of it. LSLyman Stone20 Aug 2026demographics

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