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← In a conflict, a coherent weaker actor tends to prevail over an incoherent stronger one.

17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 1 Jan 2023 to 1 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under war war Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under design design Everything filed under ambition ambition Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: In a conflict, a coherent weaker actor tends to prevail over an incoherent stronger one. In a conflict, a coherent weaker actortends to prevail over an incoherentstronger one. Last stated 2 weeks ago 18 Sept 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: The more actors weaponize interdependence without good maps of the system, the more unexpected failures and dumb mistakes will occur. — tap to centre the map on it The more actors weaponizeinterdependence without good maps ofthe system, the more unexpectedfailures and dumb mistakes willoccur. Last stated 3 weeks ago 12 Sept 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: In war the length of the fighting matters far more than its ferocity. — tap to centre the map on it In war the length of the fightingmatters far more than its ferocity. Last stated 4 weeks ago 6 Sept 2026 PO Phillips P. OBrien — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: People disagreeing about AI capability are speaking past each other, because they are using models of very different tiers on very different kinds of task. — tap to centre the map on it People disagreeing about AIcapability are speaking past eachother, because they are using modelsof very different tiers on verydifferent kinds of task. Last stated 6 months ago 9 Apr 2026 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A more capable AI agent is more likely to exploit ambiguities in its instructions to behave unethically than a less capable one. — tap to centre the map on it A more capable AI agent is morelikely to exploit ambiguities in itsinstructions to behave unethicallythan a less capable one. Last stated 3 weeks ago 11 Sept 2026 YB Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: People who do not yet trust each other are better served by tightly limited ways to interact. — tap to centre the map on it People who do not yet trust eachother are better served by tightlylimited ways to interact. Last stated 4 years ago 1 Jan 2023 DC Daniel Cook — holds since 2023-01-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Smarter people hold their opinions firmly but revise them quickly when new information appears, while clinging to consistency for its own sake is a mark of lower intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it Smarter people hold their opinionsfirmly but revise them quickly whennew information appears, whileclinging to consistency for its ownsake is a mark of lowerintelligence. Last stated 4 weeks ago 7 Sept 2026 PL Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: The world coheres because people follow scripts for different roles — tap to centre the map on it The world coheres because peoplefollow scripts for different roles Last stated yesterday 1 Oct 2026 BD Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: The low-effort path tends to win in the moment even when the higher-effort path is the one someone actually wanted. — tap to centre the map on it The low-effort path tends to win inthe moment even when thehigher-effort path is the onesomeone actually wanted. Last stated 4 months ago 17 Jun 2026 ES Elio Struyf — holds since 2026-06-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A military that disconnects its orders from the law and from legal advice has no limit on what it will do when commanded. — tap to centre the map on it A military that disconnects itsorders from the law and from legaladvice has no limit on what it willdo when commanded. Last stated a month ago 27 Aug 2026 SG Scott Greenfield — holds since 2026-08-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: American policy is to fire its nuclear weapons in response before the incoming bomb has landed, rather than wait to absorb the attack and find out whether it was real. — tap to centre the map on it American policy is to fire itsnuclear weapons in response beforethe incoming bomb has landed, ratherthan wait to absorb the attack andfind out whether it was real. Last stated 3 years ago 22 Mar 2024 AJ Annie Jacobsen — holds since 2024-03-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: Chamberlain's choice at Munich was understandable rather than craven: no democratic leader in 1938 could have taken his country to war against 92% of its population. — tap to centre the map on it Chamberlain's choice at Munich wasunderstandable rather than craven:no democratic leader in 1938 couldhave taken his country to waragainst 92% of its population. Last stated a year ago 24 May 2025 JH James Holland — holds since 2025-05-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: Decapitate a strong leader without a solution for the power vacuum and bad elements sweep in very quickly — a lesson of the Second World War that Iraq ignored. — tap to centre the map on it Decapitate a strong leader without asolution for the power vacuum andbad elements sweep in very quickly —a lesson of the Second World Warthat Iraq ignored. Last stated a year ago 24 May 2025 JH James Holland — holds since 2025-05-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis function as proxies of Iran's Ayatollah regime. — tap to centre the map on it Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthisfunction as proxies of Iran'sAyatollah regime. Last stated a year ago 30 May 2025 GS Guy Spier — holds since 2025-05-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Judgment and cognition are the two capacities the nuclear launch decision actually turns on, which is the standard a presidential candidate should be measured against. — tap to centre the map on it Judgment and cognition are the twocapacities the nuclear launchdecision actually turns on, which isthe standard a presidentialcandidate should be measuredagainst. Last stated 3 years ago 22 Mar 2024 AJ Annie Jacobsen — holds since 2024-03-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. — tap to centre the map on it A ceasefire along the current lineswould end the killing and stillleave a long-term settlement betweenRussia and Ukraine possible. Last stated a month ago 26 Aug 2026 BM Branko Milanovic — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A nation of a million people cannot rule hundreds of millions by warfare; the Mongol Empire lasted because it offered its subjects things they actually wanted. — tap to centre the map on it A nation of a million people cannotrule hundreds of millions bywarfare; the Mongol Empire lastedbecause it offered its subjectsthings they actually wanted. Last stated a year ago 31 Jul 2025 JW Jack Weatherford — holds since 2025-07-31 — tap for who they are Same subject: American ICBMs do not have the range to reach North Korea without flying over Russia, which is the flaw that turns a limited counterattack into Armageddon. — tap to centre the map on it American ICBMs do not have the rangeto reach North Korea without flyingover Russia, which is the flaw thatturns a limited counterattack intoArmageddon. Last stated 3 years ago 22 Mar 2024 AJ Annie Jacobsen — holds since 2024-03-22 — tap for who they are
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At the centre In a conflict, a coherent weaker actor tends to prevail over an incoherent stronger one. Last stated 18 Sept 2026 · 2 weeks ago Holds Brad DeLong Read this korrent →