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← Humans are terrible at estimating complicated tasks
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 2 Oct 2013 to 17 Sept 2026.
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mathematics Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Humans are terrible at estimating complicated tasks Humans are terrible at estimating complicated tasks Last stated 4 years ago
8 Dec 2022
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2022-12-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People may be overestimating how many problems are bound by intelligence rather than by other things. — tap to centre the map on it People may be overestimating how many problems are bound by intelligence rather than by other things. Last stated 4 weeks ago
6 Sept 2026
AA
Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans are amazing in part because their minds are such a complicated mess. — tap to centre the map on it Humans are amazing in part because their minds are such a complicated mess. Last stated 2 weeks ago
17 Sept 2026
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The human mind is incredibly complex and understanding and treating the nearly infinite ways it can stumble is hard. — tap to centre the map on it The human mind is incredibly complex and understanding and treating the nearly infinite ways it can stumble is hard. Last stated 2 weeks ago
17 Sept 2026
LF
Lex Fridman — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current AI coding models make poor decisions despite strong mechanical execution — tap to centre the map on it Current AI coding models make poor decisions despite strong mechanical execution Last stated 3 months ago
1 Jul 2026
JB
Jamie Brandon — holds since 2026-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is essentially no cognitive task humans do where AI improvement is failing to transfer at all. — tap to centre the map on it There is essentially no cognitive task humans do where AI improvement is failing to transfer at all. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Humans need struggle and tension — tap to centre the map on it Humans need struggle and tension Last stated 3 years ago
24 Dec 2023
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2023-12-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current AI models are worse colleagues than humans, because they routinely imply they did a task they did not actually do. — tap to centre the map on it Current AI models are worse colleagues than humans, because they routinely imply they did a task they did not actually do. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
RG
Ryan Greenblatt — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: That people are good at maths and coding, which evolution never selected for, shows human learning is not a complicated evolutionary prior but something more fundamental. — tap to centre the map on it That people are good at maths and coding, which evolution never selected for, shows human learning is not a complicated evolutionary prior but something more fundamental. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 9 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A child who has seen ten cats learns what a machine needs the whole internet of cat photos for, by a learning pathway nobody has solved. — tap to centre the map on it A child who has seen ten cats learns what a machine needs the whole internet of cat photos for, by a learning pathway nobody has solved. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
FL
Fei-Fei Li — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Evidence-based therapy" is a branding term rather than a scientific one, and in practice it is a code word for "not psychodynamic". — tap to centre the map on it "Evidence-based therapy" is a branding term rather than a scientific one, and in practice it is a code word for "not psychodynamic". Last stated 13 years ago
2 Oct 2013
JS
Jonathan Shedler — holds since 2013-10-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A culture that emphasizes self-esteem over self-knowledge leaves people less equipped to resist doing monstrous things. — tap to centre the map on it A culture that emphasizes self-esteem over self-knowledge leaves people less equipped to resist doing monstrous things. Last stated a year ago
8 Sept 2025
GS
Guy Spier — holds since 2025-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A culture that only trusts what can be put into words will treat unnamed inner experiences as unreal or as a disorder. — tap to centre the map on it A culture that only trusts what can be put into words will treat unnamed inner experiences as unreal or as a disorder. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jun 2026
KR
Kenneth Reitz — holds since 2026-06-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 10 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 3 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are