A strong El Niño's peak warming effect on global surface temperature shows up three to five months later, landing in the following year.

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• El Niño events typically peak near the end of the calendar year, between November and January. ZHZeke Hausfather13 Jul 2026similar wordingClimate scientist and energy systems analyst
• The same global average temperature can arise from greenhouse warming or from El Niño and still produce very different regional climate impacts. ADAndrew Dessler17 Aug 2026similar wordingProfessor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M
• One or two record-warm years cannot distinguish rapid aerosol-driven acceleration in warming from a strong El Niño riding on the existing trend ZHZeke Hausfather30 Jul 2026similar wording
• Climate change's effects will unfold as sudden catastrophic events rather than as steadily accumulating small changes. ADAndrew Dessler29 Jul 2026similar wording
• Since 1970, greenhouse gases explain essentially all observed global warming, with natural forcings and internal variability playing a negligible role. ZHZeke Hausfather9 Jul 2026similar wording

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