Daniel Swain
Climate scientist studying extreme weather in California and the western United States: drought, floods, wildfire and heat. Has written the Weather West blog since 2006 and hosts live YouTube sessions on weather and climate.
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Their wordsAmid an El Niño that will become the strongest, and also easternmost-centered, event on record (if it isn't already), this year's tilt in the odds toward wet and stormy conditions in California will be profoundly unsubtle.
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Our reading
Anomalously warm waters are likely to spread farther north along the Pacific coast into the winter.
Their wordsthese anomalously warm waters are very likely to spread farther north along the Pacific coast later this autumn and into the winter.
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Their wordsBetween November 2026 and January 2027, I would anticipate multiple significant coastal flood events that are worse in severity and also much more widespread than what we are currently seeing.
- 3 days earlier
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Their wordsextreme oceanic warmth will likely persist into winter and may expand farther northward along the West coast as the season progresses.
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Our reading
Episodes of extreme warmth in California will become less frequent as the climate continues to warm.
Their wordsAs noted earlier this summer, episodes like this in California will become less rare as climate (and, thus, tropical/subtropical oceans) continue to warm due to climate change.
- 12 days earlier
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Their wordswith a record-breaking El Niño event likely to become the dominant influence on prevailing weather patterns this winter across the North Pacific, the odds of a wetter-than-average winter are very high nearly statewide
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Their wordsthe strongest connection actually does arise until the new year, from January through March.