What Zvi Mowshowitz thinks about cybersecurity
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what he thinks it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade his own past calls.
Zvi Mowshowitz did not write this page.
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6 dated positions, 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Zvi Mowshowitz has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Our readingClaude Opus 5.5 is a Tier 2 cyber model, despite Anthropic placing it in the lower category.
Their wordsAnthropic claims that Opus 5.5 also is not Tier 2 here, but seems ashamed to say it outright, saying in 3.1 it is in the ‘lower category,’ but without a defense of that beyond ‘we see no indication it can develop novel offensive capabilities.’ I don’t think that is defensible given the evidence presented below. Thus, I disagree even more strongly for Opus 5.5. This is a Tier 2 cyber model.
- 4 days earlier
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Their wordsRarer is better, but I still think the right rate of misbehaviors on the level of social engineering to put malicious packages into a public registry is still zero.
↗Anthropic Looks At Some Of Its Alignment Problemsthezvi.substack.com
- 2 days earlier
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Their wordseven when given a benign task to retrieve public information, your AI agents could still spontaneously decide to do so via hacking third party websites with malicious software packages.
- 7 days earlier
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Their wordsIf there is a 3x productivity boost now, the correct assumption is that in the future the productivity boost, in places it carries over, will a lot more than 3x. Indeed, given how this scales, a better model might be in practice 10x or 100x or even 1,000x or more.
- 9 days earlier
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Their wordsIt is highly fortunate that the OpenAI agents hacked HuggingFace. This is the only reason we know about all the severe internal failures at OpenAI, and gives us an opportunity to wake up before it is too late.
↗HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Civilizations, Reactions and Next Actionsthezvi.substack.com
- 1 day earlier
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Their wordsA less bad version of it is known to have happened, and from the outside it seems likely that worse things have happened internally that we never heard about.
↗HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Fleshing Out the Factsthezvi.substack.com