What Zvi Mowshowitz thinks about LLMs
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what he thinks it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade his own past calls.
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
Zvi Mowshowitz did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
5 dated positions, 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Zvi Mowshowitz has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Our readingAIs past this point should not be assumed to treat their chain of thought as unmonitored.
Their wordsDo not assume that any AI, past this point, assumes its CoT is unmonitored.
↗Anthropic Looks At Some Of Its Alignment Problemsthezvi.substack.com
- 4 days earlier
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Our readingIllicit distillation is by far the most important AI misuse threat in current disruption cases.
Their wordsIndeed, distillation is by far the most important threat in this report, and the part of the report that will have the most impact.
- 3 days earlier
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Their wordsThe jump from Sol to Astra is larger than the jump from Fable 5 to Fable 5.1. This is a big deal. Astra is the best model for what one would broadly call ‘ambitious projects,’ and likely has the highest raw intelligence factor of any model.
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Their wordsAstra can do almost as well as Fable, in a mode where CoT monitoring cannot work. Because there is no CoT to monitor.
- 2 days earlier
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Their wordsRight now OpenAI is extremely dependent on CoT monitoring, everyone else depends on it quite a lot as well, and it looks like it may not last much longer, and that Astra already is on the edge of steganographic capabilities and can do substantial obfuscation if and only if it thinks you would think it is up to no good.