What Ramez Naam thinks about energy
Author and clean-energy investor who has been publishing dated forecasts of solar, wind, battery and electric-vehicle costs since 2011, and publishing the corrections when they came in low.
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
Ramez Naam did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
5 dated positions, 2015 to 2020, in their own words. Our reading of what Ramez Naam has said — not written or endorsed by them.
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Their wordsThe data paint an incredible picture: One that shows the price of solar electricity from utility-scale systems dropping by anywhere from 30-40% with each doubling of cumulative solar deployment.
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Our readingDemand for electricity will rise to absorb far more solar than is currently considered feasible.
Their wordsAdd these up, and it’s plausible that solar’s contribution to the energy system could double or triple the amount currently considered feasible for solar to provide.
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Their wordsThis incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable.
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Our reading · no longer heldAfter four more doublings of installed solar capacity, solar electricity will cost about 3 cents per kwh in the sunniest areas and 4.5 cents per kwh in moderately sunny areas.
No longer holdsBoth of those forecasts were wrong. Solar has plunged in price faster than anyone – including me – predicted.
SaidBoth of those forecasts were wrong. Solar has plunged in price faster than anyone – including me – predicted.
- 5 years earlier
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Their wordsAnd beyond that, by the time solar scale has doubled 4 more times, to the equivalent of 16% of today’s electricity demand (and somewhat less of future demand), we should see solar at 3 cents per kwh in the sunniest areas, and 4.5 cents per kwh in moderately sunny areas.