What John H. Cochrane thinks about public debt

@john-cochrane · 32 positions · On ppll ↗

Economist at the Hoover Institution, previously at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and the author of the fiscal theory of the price level. Writes at The Grumpy Economist.

John H. Cochrane did not write this page.

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Only John H. Cochrane on public debt. See everyone on public debt

1 dated position, 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what John H. Cochrane has said — not written or endorsed by them.

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1. 14 Apr 2025

   Our readingCutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home.

   interest ratestariffs

   Their wordsBut the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.

   ↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 5th of 6 in this piece