What John H. Cochrane thinks about interest rates
Economist at the Hoover Institution, previously at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and the author of the fiscal theory of the price level. Writes at The Grumpy Economist.
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
John H. Cochrane did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
8 dated positions, 2025 to 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what John H. Cochrane has said — not written or endorsed by them.
The shading behind a date shows how recently it was said: full within a month, empty after three years.
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Their wordsCentral banks should hold inflation-protected bonds as the primary assets on their balance sheets.
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Their wordsAt a basic level, holding real assets should help central banks to control inflation.
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Their wordsThe general FTPL with debt on the left and surpluses on the right adapts to sticky prices by real interest rate variation.
- 8 days earlier
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Our readingBanks oppose interest-paying stablecoins to avoid competition on checking account interest rates.
Their wordsBanks don’t want competition, which would force them to pay interest on checking deposits. Plain and simple.
↗Political economy in financial regulationgrumpy-economist.com
- 4 days earlier
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Their wordsThe tradeoff between cost of borrowing and how much interest rate risk taxpayers shoulder should be squarely on the shoulders of the politically-accountable Treasury not the independent Fed.
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Their wordsIn QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
- 17 months earlier
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Their wordsIn sum, spurred on by the federal government (in many ways), the US borrowed a huge amount from foreigners at very low rates, and went on a consumption binge. Sooner or later we have to pay it back, or we go though the wrenching adjustment of a debt crisis.
↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 3rd of 6 in this piece
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Their wordsBut the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.
↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 5th of 6 in this piece
The shading behind a date fills in quarters: said within a month, six months, a year, or three years. Empty means more than three years ago. It says when, not whether it still holds — a change of mind is marked on the claim itself.
Striped means we only know the words existed by that date; they may be older.