What John H. Cochrane thinks about tariffs
Economist at the Hoover Institution, previously at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and the author of the fiscal theory of the price level. Writes at The Grumpy Economist.
Everything they publish, on ppll ↗
John H. Cochrane did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
4 dated positions, 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what John H. Cochrane has said — not written or endorsed by them.
The shading behind a date shows how recently it was said: full within a month, empty after three years.
-
Their wordsTariffs are easy: The right answer is unilateral free trade.
↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 1st of 6 in this piece
-
Our readingThe American trade deficit is foreigners choosing to invest in America, not America being cheated.
Their wordsthis story tells us how an increase in foreign demand to save in the US rather than at home will push up the dollar, and cause the trade deficit, which is in effect how foreigners send us factories which they would rather build here than in their own countries.
↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 2nd of 6 in this piece
-
Their wordsBut the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.
↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 5th of 6 in this piece
-
Their wordsCure the disease, not the symptoms. Reform taxes to tax consumption, not saving and investment. Stop funneling borrowed money to consumption.
↗Tariffs, saving, and investmentgrumpy-economist.com 6th of 6 in this piece
The shading behind a date fills in quarters: said within a month, six months, a year, or three years. Empty means more than three years ago. It says when, not whether it still holds — a change of mind is marked on the claim itself.
Striped means we only know the words existed by that date; they may be older.