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What Dylan Patel thinks about OpenAI

@dylan-patel · 50 positions · 0 changes of mind

Founder and chief executive of SemiAnalysis, the research firm that tracks the semiconductor and AI data-centre supply chain.

Dylan Patel did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

3 dated positions, 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what Dylan Patel has said — not written or endorsed by them.

3 positions so far — this page is not yet offered to search engines.

  1. Our readingOpenAI's 2022 bet on GPT-4 was a larger gamble than any training run since: all of its compute, for months, on an architecture nobody at Google believed in.

    Their wordsI think it's even more impressive what OpenAI did in 2022. At the time, no one believed in mixture of experts models at Google who had all the researchers. OpenAI had such little compute and they devoted all of their compute for many months, all of it, 100% for many months to GPT-4 with a brand-new architecture with no belief that, "Hey, let me spend a couple of hundred million dollars, which is all of the money I have on this model." That is truly YOLO.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 4th of 44 in this recording

    Google

    Interesting

  3. Our readingMost of the price gap between o1 and R1 is margin rather than efficiency: OpenAI's inference gross margins are north of 75% because nobody else could serve the capability.

    Their wordsOpenAI has a fantastic margin. When they're doing inference, their gross margins are north of 75%. So that's a four to five X factor right there of the cost difference, is that OpenAI is just making crazy amounts of money because they're the only one with the capability.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 17th of 44 in this recording

    Interesting

  5. Our readingSuperhuman persuasion will arrive before superhuman intelligence, which means whoever builds a model can embed their ideals in it long before anyone reaches AGI.

    Their wordsThere's this very good quote from Sam Altman who... He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that's the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right?

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 20th of 44 in this recording

    AGI

    Interesting