korrents

What Dylan Patel thinks about China

@dylan-patel · 50 positions · 0 changes of mind

Founder and chief executive of SemiAnalysis, the research firm that tracks the semiconductor and AI data-centre supply chain.

Dylan Patel did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

8 dated positions, 2025 to 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Dylan Patel has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingChina will have a working EUV machine long before it can build them in quantity, because production hell takes years after the lab result.

    Their wordsI think they'll have working tools. I don't think that they'll be able to manufacture a bunch yet, right? You know, there's they're sort of having it work and then there's production hell, right?

    ↗Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI computeyoutube.com 13th of 28 in this recording

    Interesting

  3. Our readingHuawei, if it had access to TSMC, would arguably be a better chip company than Nvidia.

    Their wordsAnd Huawei has a bigger pool in China. It's very arguable that Huawei, if they had TSMC, would be better than Nvidia.

    ↗Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI computeyoutube.com 27th of 28 in this recording

    semiconductors

    Interesting

  5. Our readingEvacuating TSMC's engineers and destroying its fabs would leave China with the strongest semiconductor supply chain in the world.

    Their wordsUm, just shipping out all the engineers and blowing up the fabs means China has a stronger semiconductor supply chain than the rest of the world, right?

    ↗Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI computeyoutube.com 28th of 28 in this recording

    semiconductors

    Interesting
  6. 13 months earlier

  7. Our readingIf AI does not transform the economy within the next five to ten years, the export controls will have guaranteed that China wins the long run.

    Their wordsif you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long-term.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 10th of 44 in this recording

    Interesting

  9. Our readingThe only thing stopping China from building the largest data centre in the world is access to chips; the power and the industrial capacity are already there.

    Their wordsChina, if they wanted to build the largest data center in the world, if they had access to the chips, could. So it's just a question of when, not if.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 11th of 44 in this recording

    data centers

    Interesting

  11. Our readingExport controls slowed China at the leading edge and accelerated it everywhere else, because being locked out taught China to in-source the trailing edge.

    Their wordsSo there is an angle of, the US' actions, from the angle of the expert controls, have been so inflammatory at slowing down China's progress on the leading edge that they've turned around and have accelerated their progress elsewhere because they know that this is so important.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 13th of 44 in this recording

    Interesting

  13. Our readingThe largest hole in America's GPU export controls was never physical smuggling but renting: ByteDance runs over 500,000 GPUs it does not own.

    Their wordsOne is ByteDance, arguably is the largest smuggler of GPUs for China. China's not supposed to have GPUs. ByteDance has over 500,000 GPUs. Why? Because they're all rented from companies around the world.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 28th of 44 in this recording

    Americasemiconductors

    Interesting

  15. Our readingWhen writing software becomes cheap, platform SaaS dies: companies stop buying Salesforce and start building their own business logic, as China already does.

    Their wordsBut what happens when every company can just invent their own business logic really cheaply and quickly? You stop using platform SaaS, you start building custom tailored solutions, you change them really quickly.

    ↗DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459youtube.com 39th of 44 in this recording

    SaaS

    Interesting