Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026

Zeke Hausfather · 30 Jul 2026 · theclimatebrink.com ↗

2 korrents from this piece

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Every claim below was made in this piece, quoted word for word and numbered in the order the piece makes them, so you can read it there rather than take our word for it. The sentence above each quote is our reading of the claim, not their wording. Each quote was checked against a stored copy of the page at build time; where the two differ, the quote is the fact.

Our reading
One or two record-warm years cannot distinguish rapid aerosol-driven acceleration in warming from a strong El Niño riding on the existing trend

Their wordsit tells you that a single warm year, or even two, cannot distinguish between "very rapid acceleration driven by aerosols and high sensitivity" and "the trend and more modest acceleration plus a very strong El Niño."
Our reading
Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is closer to 3.5°C than 4.5°C

Their wordsI'd personally give a central estimate closer to 3.5C than Hansen's ~4.5C