Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is closer to 3.5°C than 4.5°C

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• Climate models may be underestimating how much future warming will occur. ADAndrew Dessler4 Sept 2026similar wordingProfessor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M
• The planet is probably getting too hot and CO2 has something to do with it, but whether it can be fixed in time is unknown, and pre-emptive despair helps no one. DHDavid Heinemeier Hansson12 Jul 2025similar wordingCreator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals
• One or two record-warm years cannot distinguish rapid aerosol-driven acceleration in warming from a strong El Niño riding on the existing trend ZHZeke Hausfather30 Jul 2026similar wordingClimate scientist and energy systems analyst
• Temperatures from high-emissions climate scenarios are a plausible upper bound on future warming, even though the emissions themselves are unlikely. ADAndrew Dessler4 Sept 2026similar wording
• Cooling or warming global temperature by around 10°F would produce an unrecognizably different planet. ADAndrew Dessler29 Jul 2026similar wording

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