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← People and their mental models

Zeke Hausfather's mental models

3 claims Zeke Hausfather made fit 3 mental models. Most often: Cheaper means more, not less, Probabilistic thinking, Second-order thinking. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Cheaper means more, not less

Make something cheaper to use and people use so much more of it that the total goes up (Jevons paradox).

Used by 10 others

Making AI compute cheaper per token drives enough extra usage that total AI energy consumption rises rather than falls (a Jevons paradox effect).

  1. Zeke Hausfather Climate scientist and energy systems analyst This is the Jevons paradox in action: making compute cheaper per token in turn tends to lead to greater levels of AI use. The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com · 5 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThis is the Jevons paradox in action: making compute cheaper per token in turn tends to lead to greater levels of AI use.

    ↗The real energy use of agentic AItheclimatebrink.com

    5 Aug 2026

Probabilistic thinking

Think in odds, not certainties, and bet heavily only when the odds are clearly yours.

Used by 25 others

The historical occurrence of extreme natural events does not by itself show whether their odds have changed over time.

  1. Zeke Hausfather Climate scientist and energy systems analyst But the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently). What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disastertheclimatebrink.com · 28 Aug 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBut the existence of old events tells us nothing about whether the odds are changing, and heat waves happened in 1900 too (just less frequently).

    ↗What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disastertheclimatebrink.com

    28 Aug 2026

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Second-order thinking

Ask "and then what?": follow a decision past its first effect to the ones that come after.

Used by 86 others

Cutting sulfur air pollution is now unmasking greenhouse-gas warming that aerosols had been offsetting.

  1. Zeke Hausfather Climate scientist and energy systems analyst As air quality regulations cut sulfur emissions, warming from greenhouse gases is being unmasked. What drove the early 20th century warming?theclimatebrink.com · 9 Jul 2026All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsAs air quality regulations cut sulfur emissions, warming from greenhouse gases is being unmasked.

    ↗What drove the early 20th century warming?theclimatebrink.com

    9 Jul 2026