korrents

← People and their mental models

Howard Marks's mental models

3 claims Howard Marks made fit 3 mental models. Most often: Leverage, Probabilistic thinking, Trade-offs. Everything they said here.

Models they name

Their own words name the idea.

Leverage

Tools, code, capital and debt multiply what one person can do, in both directions.

Used by 29 others

Leverage in the AI build-out is neither to be applauded nor feared; what matters is how much debt there is and what backs it.

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management Debt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsDebt is neither a good thing nor a bad thing per se. Likewise, the use of leverage in the AI industry shouldn’t be applauded or feared.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

Models we see in what they say

Our reading: their claim applies the idea without naming it. The claim is theirs; filing it here is ours.

Probabilistic thinking

Think in odds, not certainties, and bet heavily only when the odds are clearly yours.

Used by 25 others

Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management Given the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, I think virtually no one can say for sure. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsGiven the vast potential of AI but also the large number of enormous unknowns, I think virtually no one can say for sure.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025

Trade-offs

Every choice gives something up, so name the cost; and check, because some trade-offs everyone assumes are not real.

Used by 60 others

There is no way to capture a new technology’s upside without being exposed to the losses if the enthusiasm proves excessive.

  1. Howard Marks Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management There can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive. Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThere can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive.

    ↗Is It a Bubble?oaktreecapital.com

    9 Dec 2025